Archive

EA: HICP Converging Close to 2%

• In the final print, headline EA inflation was confirmed as slowing by 0.2pp to 2.6%. The 0.1pp of upside from the flash was genuine and even worse in services.
• January’s divergence in the underlying inflationary impulse was resolved with clustering nearer 2%, potentially consistent with a sustainable return to the inflation target.
• Lower energy costs may flatter the picture, while strong services inflation suggests wage growth remains too high. We still see the ECB’s first cut rolling to September.

By Philip Rush

Sweden CPI Inflation 4.5% y-o-y (consensus 4.7%) in Feb-24

- Sweden's CPI inflation for February 2024 was 4.5% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 4.7%, suggesting a surprise moderation in inflationary pressures.
- The current inflation rate is close to the December 2023 lows, so it is significantly below the one-year average.

Argentina CPI Inflation 13.2% m-o-m (consensus 15.0%) in Feb-24

- Argentina's February 2024 CPI inflation rate of 13.2% m-o-m is much lower than the consensus estimate of 15% and even further below the previous month's rate of 20.6%.
- Despite this moderation, the inflation rate is still significant and above the one-year average, as the severe challenges require ongoing policy attention.

US CPI Inflation 3.15% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Feb-24

- US CPI inflation for February 2024 slightly exceeded expectations with a y-o-y rate of 3.15%. It's been broadly flat at this pace for five months.
- Core inflation, excluding volatile components, slowed to 3.8% y-o-y, hawkishly surprising by 0.1pp amid a resilient underlying trend.