Archive

Outlook 2024: The Big Issue, Part 3

• Forecasters are shying away from predicting the outcome of the US election. However, it may not be that complicated, the key determinant being the economy. Joe Biden should win a second term if the Fed cuts rates early in 2024 and the Administration sharpens its messaging. If not…

By Alastair Newton

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

Outlook 2024: The Year Of The Dragon #2

• For the past 18 months or so, there has been much talk of ‘peak China’ economically. As we enter the year of the dragon, should we add to this the semi-related question of whether we are also witnessing China’s diplomatic peak?

By Alastair Newton

US CPI Inflation 3.35% y-o-y (consensus 3.2%) in Dec-23

- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.35% year-on-year in December 2023, exceeding the consensus estimate of 3.2% and marking the highest growth since September 2023.
- Core CPI inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, reached 3.9% year-on-year in December 2023, indicating surprisingly strong underlying inflationary pressures.