Archive

May 29, 2025
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Underlying GDP Trends Unbroken

  • Imports frontloaded before tariff rises seemingly disappeared in broadly unrevised US GDP data. Underperformance is exaggerated as an unwind, or revisions, are likely in Q2.
  • Final domestic private sales maintained their rudely bullish US trend while drifting back towards stagnation in the EA and are distorted by residual seasonality in the UK.
  • Superior US productivity trends preserve its structural attractiveness. Unemployment’s stability also suggests monetary conditions are near neutral, with easing unnecessary.

By Philip Rush

May 27, 2025
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US vs EU: Crying ‘Wolf’?

  • Ursula von der Leyen’s 25 May call with Donald Trump can be seen as a ‘win’ for the US President following his threat to impose 50% tariffs on the EU from 1 June. Alternatively, one could see his reversion as the latest manifestation of the TACO principle.

By Alastair Newton

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