Archive

September 03, 2025
2025-09-03 Rates_head.png

Cutting After Pauses

  • The BoE and Fed rarely resume cutting cycles after a pause, yet the Fed seems set to break its hold with a cut just as the BoE and ECB enter their own pauses.
  • 2002-03 is the best historical parallel for the Fed, which signals potential cuts should be shallow and are likely to be reversed. Politics is no match for the fundamental need.
  • Persistently excessive UK pressures should prevent the BoE from cutting in November or beyond, with a quarterly pause historically unlikely to resolve in another rate cut.

By Philip Rush

August 26, 2025
2025-08-26 AN_head.png

Russia/Ukraine: What Now?

  • A week after the event, it is clear that the Trump/Putin summit presented the latter with a big win at little, if any, cost.
  • Donald Trump is unlikely to come up with anything that will bring Mr Putin to the negotiating table in good faith once his latest two-week ‘deadline’ expires.
  • Furthermore, Mr Trump remains philosophically inclined to favour Russia, a leaning that probably poses a greater risk to Kyiv than Mr Putin himself does.

By Alastair Newton

By country