![AU.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/AU.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722082529&Signature=YjQhoKR5O~VKxn3ldbEm6-uUJJnFXNsEX5TkvQM-2TJrKKFXmhXk5npn-PibIoBIOh4iwhspUf1A0asObLZycKBZVu2zArd3vpba0ku7QpuSynRiVfFIgKHnTZVqhFrY4XWW-PpTS9vZPSLnan0Q6keuG5ZR1UoMBD8c62yANPtvfHTUdUpONp0YpP14-qXjAjr9~HXXaqqANVHDJMVeX3VPNc~rqrGQnRdOVLYtdxTkEsX5A64uIWr9qDFNLa7ZK5rD5b~jxkFooflVp9dq9fvcTqotQxa5EKFLYwSDpWPGVuOSM3~x9KpBNAto9VrmEXULGE19fFf7R8lq0Drcbw__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Jun-24
- The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%, reflecting a cautious approach in response to persistent inflation and excess demand pressures, aligning with the economic consensus.
- Domestic consumption trends, labour market conditions, and global economic uncertainties will influence future policy decisions, focusing on achieving the 2-3% inflation target by the second half of 2025.
- The RBA emphasizes data-driven decision-making and remains vigilant to upside inflation risks, maintaining flexibility in its policy stance to ensure inflation returns to target sustainably.
![AU.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/AU.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722082529&Signature=YjQhoKR5O~VKxn3ldbEm6-uUJJnFXNsEX5TkvQM-2TJrKKFXmhXk5npn-PibIoBIOh4iwhspUf1A0asObLZycKBZVu2zArd3vpba0ku7QpuSynRiVfFIgKHnTZVqhFrY4XWW-PpTS9vZPSLnan0Q6keuG5ZR1UoMBD8c62yANPtvfHTUdUpONp0YpP14-qXjAjr9~HXXaqqANVHDJMVeX3VPNc~rqrGQnRdOVLYtdxTkEsX5A64uIWr9qDFNLa7ZK5rD5b~jxkFooflVp9dq9fvcTqotQxa5EKFLYwSDpWPGVuOSM3~x9KpBNAto9VrmEXULGE19fFf7R8lq0Drcbw__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Australia Unemployment Rate 4.0% (consensus 4.0%) in May-24
- Australia's unemployment rate dipped to 4.0% in May 2024, reversing a third of April's rise, with employment increasing by 39,700 jobs, indicative of ongoing labour market resilience.
- Economic indicators reveal a dichotomy in recovery, with robust service sector performance (PMI Services 52.5) counterbalanced by manufacturing sector vulnerabilities (PMI Manufacturing 49.7) and tepid consumer spending growth (retail sales 0.1% m-o-m in April 2024).
![2024-05-23 pmi_head.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/2024-05-23_pmi_head.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722082529&Signature=FjcoId15i9NLXO1r09xgLI6lqBlbx2OUHmA7OcT5iuK0V~ZwN716O3yjSkVbeeOX1xgqqh3V7VmY-ku~DH-rV7dskXk86~7zzO7S12ziDg2EAbd5uELSklmyN9dROHKiQ9gFLHtT8AuxzObXhsBu38BCnxHC7mlC7kJXrXhhHt72RO8lw3zCfCKtm-w9jrvhwDorlZ3qBkgxIh6RQW8DLiu7YNPGpGeZ0mT6QQPK77oqw4nS-mLHZb7jaza1oH5lWoGRxyt8ZzCBZv-p2ojBGb-E7j9okbNW-IYJP~xdqfDmQ-uMnF0M~xFPQjvIj6xtHOtl2CEbeOJg8Q5ULI4Urg__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Peak PMI Pace Probably Passing
- The PMIs probably peaked in the spring, with the US’s jump beyond its peers in May setting it up for a more substantial drop during the summer.
- Residual seasonality from the pandemic-corrupted adjustment factors will likely exaggerate the US payback as part of a softening global story.
- A summer downturn should support the re-emergence of dovish debate in the US, where we still expect a September cut. However, global policy only looks a little tight.
By Philip Rush
![AU.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/AU.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722082529&Signature=YjQhoKR5O~VKxn3ldbEm6-uUJJnFXNsEX5TkvQM-2TJrKKFXmhXk5npn-PibIoBIOh4iwhspUf1A0asObLZycKBZVu2zArd3vpba0ku7QpuSynRiVfFIgKHnTZVqhFrY4XWW-PpTS9vZPSLnan0Q6keuG5ZR1UoMBD8c62yANPtvfHTUdUpONp0YpP14-qXjAjr9~HXXaqqANVHDJMVeX3VPNc~rqrGQnRdOVLYtdxTkEsX5A64uIWr9qDFNLa7ZK5rD5b~jxkFooflVp9dq9fvcTqotQxa5EKFLYwSDpWPGVuOSM3~x9KpBNAto9VrmEXULGE19fFf7R8lq0Drcbw__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Australia Unemployment Rate 4.05% (consensus 3.9%) in Apr-24
- The unemployment rate in Australia increased to 4.05% in April 2024, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.9% by returning to the highest level since January.
- That slackening occurred despite a surprisingly large employment increase of 38,500 in April, owing to faster labour force growth.
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