May 23, 2024

Peak PMI Pace Probably Passing
- The PMIs probably peaked in the spring, with the US’s jump beyond its peers in May setting it up for a more substantial drop during the summer.
- Residual seasonality from the pandemic-corrupted adjustment factors will likely exaggerate the US payback as part of a softening global story.
- A summer downturn should support the re-emergence of dovish debate in the US, where we still expect a September cut. However, global policy only looks a little tight.
By Philip Rush
May 16, 2024

Australia Unemployment Rate 4.05% (consensus 3.9%) in Apr-24
- The unemployment rate in Australia increased to 4.05% in April 2024, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.9% by returning to the highest level since January.
- That slackening occurred despite a surprisingly large employment increase of 38,500 in April, owing to faster labour force growth.
May 07, 2024

Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in May-24
- The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% amid ongoing but moderating inflation, particularly in the services sector, reflecting a cautious approach to ensure inflation returns to the 2-3% target range by the second half of 2025.
- Economic uncertainties, including persistent services inflation, global geopolitical risks, and the effects of previous rate hikes on consumption and economic growth, continue to influence the RBA’s policy decisions.
- The RBA maintains a flexible policy outlook, indicating that future rate adjustments will be data-driven and contingent upon evolving economic conditions and inflation trajectories, with a strong commitment to achieving its inflation target.
April 24, 2024

Australia CPI Inflation 3.6% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Q1-24
- Australia's CPI inflation rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 3.6% y-o-y in Q1-24, but that still exceeded consensus expectations of 3.4%.
- The upside news was in underlying pressures as the weighted median held at 4.4%, and the trimmed mean disappointed by only slowing 0.2pp to 4%.
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