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Australia: Cash Rate Held At 4.35% (Consensus 4.35%) in Nov-24

• The RBA board kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% to sustain the restrictive stance needed to bring inflation down, aligning with projections of achieving target inflation by 2026.
• Persistently high underlying inflation and a resilient labour market suggest continued excess demand, reinforcing the cautious approach towards easing.
• Future rate decisions will depend on domestic inflation trends, labour market dynamics, and global economic developments, particularly the Fed and ECB policy moves.

No Alarm From Global Cycle

• Broad increases in the flash services PMIs reinforced the signal that global activity remains resilient enough not to require forceful monetary easing.
• Residual seasonality hasn’t appeared in the PMIs again this summer, but it pollutes some unemployment data. A slight majority of countries have a higher UR than a year ago.
• Softening labour market trends from a relatively neutral cyclical position are consistent with gradual and limited rate cuts, even if they need reversing without a recession.

By Philip Rush

RBA Cash Rate 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Aug-24

• The RBA maintained its policy rate at 4.35% amid persistent inflationary pressures, aligning with the economic consensus and highlighting the challenges in achieving its inflation target promptly.
• Future policy decisions will hinge on domestic consumption trends, labour market conditions, and global economic uncertainties, with the RBA emphasizing a data-driven approach to sustainably ensure inflation returns to the target range.
• The RBA remains vigilant to upside inflation risks, prioritizing inflation targeting within its mandate, and is prepared to adjust policy settings based on evolving economic data and risk assessments.

Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Jun-24

• The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%, reflecting a cautious approach in response to persistent inflation and excess demand pressures, aligning with the economic consensus.
• Domestic consumption trends, labour market conditions, and global economic uncertainties will influence future policy decisions, focusing on achieving the 2-3% inflation target by the second half of 2025.
• The RBA emphasizes data-driven decision-making and remains vigilant to upside inflation risks, maintaining flexibility in its policy stance to ensure inflation returns to target sustainably.