Archive

March 20, 2024
2024-03-20 uk_head.png

UK: Sticky Services Persist in Feb-24

  • UK CPI inflation slowed 0.1pp further than expected to 3.4% in February amid soft goods prices, but services prices were strong again by only easing to 6.1%.
  • Underlying inflation pressures remain sticky, with the median inflationary impulse stuck close to 3%. These data remain inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% target.
  • Proximity to the target relies upon the temporary drag from falling energy prices and is not a reason to cut. Wage growth is too high, fuelling resilience that postpones cuts.

By Philip Rush


March 19, 2024
CA.png

Canada CPI Inflation 2.78% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Feb-24

- Canada's CPI inflation rate in February 2024 was 2.78% y-o-y, defying the consensus expectations for a rise to 3.1%.
- Underlying measures of inflation also slowed, indicating a relatively subdued inflationary environment.


March 18, 2024
2024-03-18 ea_head.png

EA: HICP Converging Close to 2%

  • In the final print, headline EA inflation was confirmed as slowing by 0.2pp to 2.6%. The 0.1pp of upside from the flash was genuine and even worse in services.
  • January’s divergence in the underlying inflationary impulse was resolved with clustering nearer 2%, potentially consistent with a sustainable return to the inflation target.
  • Lower energy costs may flatter the picture, while strong services inflation suggests wage growth remains too high. We still see the ECB’s first cut rolling to September.

By Philip Rush


March 14, 2024
SE.png

Sweden CPI Inflation 4.5% y-o-y (consensus 4.7%) in Feb-24

- Sweden's CPI inflation for February 2024 was 4.5% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 4.7%, suggesting a surprise moderation in inflationary pressures.
- The current inflation rate is close to the December 2023 lows, so it is significantly below the one-year average.