March 01, 2024
EA Serving Inflation Resilience
- Flash EA inflation unusually exceeded expectations by only slowing by 0.2pp to 2.58% in February. This outcome matches average forecasts for the month held since Dec-22.
- Resilient services inflation only slowed by 5bps to 3.93%, driving the upside surprise in the headline and core inflation rates, with the latter at 3.1%.
- The ECB will likely look at headline inflation above this pace at its June meeting, with services at 3.5% in our forecast. We still expect it to delay cuts until September.
By Philip Rush
March 01, 2024
Indonesia CPI Inflation 2.75% y-o-y (consensus 2.6%) in Feb-24
- Indonesia's CPI inflation increased to 2.75% year-on-year in February 2024, contrary to the consensus forecast for stability at 2.6%.
- The CPI inflation rate remains below the one-year average by 0.53 percentage points, and core inflation matched expectations by staying at 1.68%.
March 01, 2024
Peru Lima CPI Inflation 0.56% m-o-m (consensus 0.2%) in Feb-24
- Lima's CPI inflation in February 2024 exceeded expectations, with a 0.56% m-o-m increase, the highest since March 2023.
- The resurgent inflation rate surpasses the one-year average by 0.29 percentage points.
February 29, 2024
UK Housing Shock Has Blown Over Again
- Interest rate spikes in 2022 and 2023 rattled the housing market, but prompt reversals in market rates dissipated the shocks before they were adequately felt.
- UK mortgage rates are back to their lows from last spring, and approvals for new loans are higher than then. Lending values are set to turn positive again soon.
- The risk to economic activity and RPI inflation increasingly appears to have blown over, with housing depreciation troughing and MIPs unlikely to turn negative soon.
By Philip Rush
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