Archive

May 02, 2025
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EA: April’s Awkward Core Rebound

  • Resurgent services offset falling energy prices in April to deliver a surprisingly stable 2.2% rate, breaking the usual correlation between energy price moves and surprises.
  • Surprises skewed positively across the Euro area, compounding the underlying signal from core inflation, which has reversed its weakness from the previous two months.
  • The headline news is modest, and the composition won’t derail the ECB’s June cut, but it demonstrates the ongoing inflation problem that should truncate the easing cycle.

By Philip Rush

April 16, 2025
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EA Disinflation Confirmed For ECB Doves

  • An unrevised final HICP print confirmed the disinflationary space driving the ECB to cut again in April, despite growing desire to slow easing before it becomes stimulative.
  • The median inflation impulse remains at, or slightly below, the target. However, other statistical measures are stickier and labour costs are fundamentally growing too fast.
  • EURUSD appreciation compounds disinflationary energy price pressures to trigger another likely slowing in April that might dovishly surprise the consensus again.

By Philip Rush

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