Archive

January 08, 2025
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Oil in 2025

  • The threat of trade wars makes forecasting the oil price this year unusually hazardous. However, based on the ‘known knowns’, one can safely assume that the downward pressure we saw through 2024 will persist. My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is, therefore, USD65 per barrel.

By Alastair Newton

October 07, 2024
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The Middle East: At An Inflection Point?

  • Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack last week is seemingly inevitable and may well mark a further escalation, especially if, as seems likely, Israel is aiming fundamentally to shift the balance of power in the region. Nevertheless, the perceived threat to oil may be overstated.

By Alastair Newton

October 03, 2024
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Hedge Geopolitical Risk in the UAE

  • Rising tensions in the Middle East increase focus on geopolitical risks, which are hard to hedge. The UAE’s neutrality has made it a natural safe harbour, and this remains true.
  • Dubai property is an investible hedge, with price inflation correlated to the geopolitical risk level because it attracts sticky capital inflows whenever risks crystallise.
  • Natural leverage through off-plan payment schedules lowers the capital intensity of this diversifying asset while also presenting families with an attractive political "plan B".

By Philip Rush

September 24, 2024
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Oil: Rolling The Barrel Down The Road

  • Opec+ has little choice in the face of persistent weak demand for oil other than to further delay the unwinding of its voluntary cuts. Even then, without a sustained geopolitical shock, Brent looks set to settle below USD70 per barrel until at least the middle of 2025.

By Alastair Newton

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