Archive

June 30, 2025
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Oil: Revisiting My Forecast

  • Oil supply is projected to outpace demand growth through 2026, leading to rising inventories and sustained downward pressure on Brent crude to below USD60pb.
  • Opec+ output increases, quota disputes (especially with the UAE), and the potential unwinding of voluntary cuts could further flood the market.
  • US shale producers and international oil companies are reducing investment due to lower prices, but current Brent levels are not yet low enough to force significant cuts.

By Alastair Newton

May 12, 2025
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Oil: How Low Will It Go?

  • Riyadh’s acceleration in unwinding cuts to oil output is now widely seen as a drive to squeeze out high-cost producers, especially US shale. However, no matter how low the price of crude oil goes, tariff-related economic uncertainties make success no more certain than it was in 2014-16.

By Alastair Newton

January 08, 2025
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Oil in 2025

  • The threat of trade wars makes forecasting the oil price this year unusually hazardous. However, based on the ‘known knowns’, one can safely assume that the downward pressure we saw through 2024 will persist. My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is, therefore, USD65 per barrel.

By Alastair Newton

October 07, 2024
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The Middle East: At An Inflection Point?

  • Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack last week is seemingly inevitable and may well mark a further escalation, especially if, as seems likely, Israel is aiming fundamentally to shift the balance of power in the region. Nevertheless, the perceived threat to oil may be overstated.

By Alastair Newton

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