Archive

October 03, 2024
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Hedge Geopolitical Risk in the UAE

  • Rising tensions in the Middle East increase focus on geopolitical risks, which are hard to hedge. The UAE’s neutrality has made it a natural safe harbour, and this remains true.
  • Dubai property is an investible hedge, with price inflation correlated to the geopolitical risk level because it attracts sticky capital inflows whenever risks crystallise.
  • Natural leverage through off-plan payment schedules lowers the capital intensity of this diversifying asset while also presenting families with an attractive political "plan B".

By Philip Rush

September 24, 2024
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Oil: Rolling The Barrel Down The Road

  • Opec+ has little choice in the face of persistent weak demand for oil other than to further delay the unwinding of its voluntary cuts. Even then, without a sustained geopolitical shock, Brent looks set to settle below USD70 per barrel until at least the middle of 2025.

By Alastair Newton

July 15, 2024
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Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

  • The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton

April 24, 2024
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Oil: When The Facts Change…

  • Changing ‘facts’ in the Middle East and more widely are making prospects for the price of oil even more murky, as is underlined by the wide range of forecasts among market analysts. What is clear, however, is that the escalation in Iran/Israel tensions has skewed risks firmly to the upside.

By Alastair Newton

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