Archive

Oil: A Fine Line

• The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

UAE M3 Money Supply 14.8% y-o-y in Sep-23

- UAE M3 Money Supply recorded a significant year-on-year growth rate of 14.8% in September 2023, the highest level since July 2023.
- The growth is 1.08 percentage points below the one-year average but 6.00 percentage points above the long-run average, indicating expansionary monetary conditions.

Good COP, Bad COP

• Despite some positive signs from both China and the US, the world’s two biggest emitters, and determined conference chairing by the UAE, expectations for COP28 are rightly low, with the onus to do better resting primarily on the financially stretched and distracted developed world.

By Alastair Newton