Heteronomics Archive

September 18, 2024

Brazil Policy Rate 10.75% (consensus 10.75%) in Sep-24

Brazil's Copom raised the Selic rate by 25bps to 10.75%, in line with expectations, to counter persistent inflationary pressures amid stronger-than-expected domestic economic activity.
Inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 remain elevated, and Copom sees asymmetric risks, particularly from resilient services inflation, currency depreciation, and global uncertainties.
Future rate adjustments will depend on inflation dynamics, expectations, and the global economic landscape, with the Committee committed to maintaining a contractionary stance to ensure inflation convergence toward its target.

July 31, 2024

Maintaining the Selic rate at 10.50% was driven by global uncertainties, stronger domestic economic signals, and above-target core inflation, supporting a cautious yet vigilant monetary policy stance.
Inflation expectations and projections for the coming years indicate a challenging but manageable path towards achieving the central bank’s targets, necessitating continued prudence in monetary adjustments.
The Committee stresses the importance of a contractionary monetary policy in the medium term, emphasizing the role of credible fiscal management and ongoing risk assessments in shaping future interest rate decisions.

June 19, 2024

Brazil's Copom maintained the Selic rate at 10.50%, consistent with expectations, emphasizing caution amid persistent global uncertainties and robust domestic economic activity.
Inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 remain close to targets, with the Committee highlighting risks from global inflationary pressures and resilient domestic services inflation.
The decision underscores the importance of a contractionary monetary stance to consolidate disinflation and anchor inflation expectations, with future adjustments contingent on evolving economic conditions and fiscal policy commitments.

May 08, 2024

Copom reduced the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 10.50% in a calibrated response to mixed domestic economic signals and persistent global uncertainties, with a continued commitment to inflation targeting amid labour market pressures.
Inflation remains above target despite a disinflation trajectory, with projections indicating a slow convergence towards the target by 2025, influenced by domestic activities and global economic conditions.
The decision highlights the importance of a contractionary monetary stance and credible fiscal policy in stabilizing inflation expectations, with future rate adjustments contingent upon evolving economic dynamics and budgetary discipline.