November 30, 2023

Brazil Unemployment Rate 7.6% (consensus 7.7%) in Oct-23

- The unemployment rate in Brazil for October 2023 reached 7.6%, slightly lower than the consensus forecast of 7.7%.
- The current unemployment rate is 0.53 percentage points below the one-year average and 2.92 percentage points below the long-run average.

November 17, 2023

Brazil Economic Activity Growth -0.06% m-o-m (consensus 0.2) in Sep-23

- Brazil experienced a decline of 0.06% in economic activity growth in September 2023, falling short of the consensus expectation of 0.2%, but reversing August's intensified decline.
- The September growth rate is 0.17 pp below the one-year average and 0.24 pp below the long-run average, indicating a slowdown in economic activity compared to historical performance.

November 10, 2023

Brazil IPCA Inflation 4.82% y-o-y (consensus 4.9) in Oct-23

- Brazil's IPCA inflation for October 2023 was 4.82% year-on-year, marginally below market expectations but only marking the lowest growth since August.
- The month-on-month inflation rate in October was 0.24%, also slightly below consensus forecasts. The year-on-year inflation remains close to the one-year average but falls significantly below the long-run average.

November 01, 2023

Brazil Policy Rate 12.25% in Nov-23

  • The Banco Central do Brasil Copom's unsurprising decision to reduce the Selic rate by 50bp is influenced by external adversities like rising US interest rates and domestic economic slowdown indicators.
  • Despite the disinflationary trajectory, inflation rates remain above targets, with upside risks stemming from global inflationary pressures and a tighter domestic output gap.
  • The Copom advocates a cautious and contractionary monetary policy, with potential similar rate reductions in future, contingent on evolving economic indicators and scenarios.