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Brazil IPCA Inflation 4.82% y-o-y (consensus 4.9) in Oct-23

- Brazil's IPCA inflation for October 2023 was 4.82% year-on-year, marginally below market expectations but only marking the lowest growth since August.
- The month-on-month inflation rate in October was 0.24%, also slightly below consensus forecasts. The year-on-year inflation remains close to the one-year average but falls significantly below the long-run average.

Brazil Policy Rate 12.25% in Nov-23

• The Banco Central do Brasil Copom's unsurprising decision to reduce the Selic rate by 50bp is influenced by external adversities like rising US interest rates and domestic economic slowdown indicators.
• Despite the disinflationary trajectory, inflation rates remain above targets, with upside risks stemming from global inflationary pressures and a tighter domestic output gap.
• The Copom advocates a cautious and contractionary monetary policy, with potential similar rate reductions in future, contingent on evolving economic indicators and scenarios.

Brazil Unemployment Rate % 7.7% (consensus 7.7%) in Sep-23

- Brazil's unemployment rate in September 2023 decreased slightly to 7.7% from the previous rate of 7.8%, as expected.
- The current unemployment rate is below both the average rate of the past year and the long-run average, indicating some progress in reducing unemployment.

Brazil Economic Activity Growth -0.77% m-o-m (consensus -0.3%) in Aug-23

- Brazil's economic activity growth declined by 0.77% m-o-m in August 2023, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2023.
- The current growth rate is 0.87 pp below the one-year average, indicating a significant slowdown in economic activity.