Heteronomics Archive

July 31, 2024

Brazil Policy Rate 10.5% (consensus 10.5%) in Jul-24

Maintaining the Selic rate at 10.50% was driven by global uncertainties, stronger domestic economic signals, and above-target core inflation, supporting a cautious yet vigilant monetary policy stance.
Inflation expectations and projections for the coming years indicate a challenging but manageable path towards achieving the central bank’s targets, necessitating continued prudence in monetary adjustments.
The Committee stresses the importance of a contractionary monetary policy in the medium term, emphasizing the role of credible fiscal management and ongoing risk assessments in shaping future interest rate decisions.

June 19, 2024

Brazil's Copom maintained the Selic rate at 10.50%, consistent with expectations, emphasizing caution amid persistent global uncertainties and robust domestic economic activity.
Inflation expectations for 2024 and 2025 remain close to targets, with the Committee highlighting risks from global inflationary pressures and resilient domestic services inflation.
The decision underscores the importance of a contractionary monetary stance to consolidate disinflation and anchor inflation expectations, with future adjustments contingent on evolving economic conditions and fiscal policy commitments.

May 08, 2024

Copom reduced the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 10.50% in a calibrated response to mixed domestic economic signals and persistent global uncertainties, with a continued commitment to inflation targeting amid labour market pressures.
Inflation remains above target despite a disinflation trajectory, with projections indicating a slow convergence towards the target by 2025, influenced by domestic activities and global economic conditions.
The decision highlights the importance of a contractionary monetary stance and credible fiscal policy in stabilizing inflation expectations, with future rate adjustments contingent upon evolving economic dynamics and budgetary discipline.

March 20, 2024

Copom reduced the Selic rate by 0.5pp to 10.75%, matching expectations, in response to the global economy's continued volatility and persistent domestic inflation pressures.
Future policy decisions will be influenced by the evolution of global and domestic inflationary pressures, labour market conditions, and the pace of economic activity deceleration.
The Committee's unanimous commitment to further potential rate cuts aims to consolidate the disinflation process and achieve long-term price stability.