Archive

Brazil IPCA Inflation 4.62% y-o-y (consensus 4.5%) in Dec-23

- Brazil's IPCA inflation rate for December 2023 slowed slightly to 4.62% y-o-y, surpassing the consensus estimate of 4.5%.
- With this upside surprise, inflation remains close to the average of the past year, suggesting that progress towards the inflation target may have stalled.

Brazil Economic Activity Growth -0.06% m-o-m (consensus 0.1) in Oct-23

- Brazil's economic activity contracted by 0.06% in October 2023, missing the consensus estimate of 0.1% growth.
- The current contraction is the third consecutive one. It is also 0.14 percentage points worse than the one-year average and 0.22 percentage points below the long-run average, indicating a historically poor performance.

Brazil Policy Rate 11.75% (consensus 11.75%) in Dec-23

• The Banco Central do Brasil Copom's reduction of the Selic rate to 11.75% aligns with expectations and is indicative of a cautious yet responsive approach to a less adverse global economic outlook and domestic inflationary pressures.
• Copom's decision is based on a balanced assessment of risks, with a recognition of potential global persistent inflationary pressures and domestic output gap dynamics influencing future rate decisions.
• The Committee projects continued rate cuts, maintaining a contractionary stance to ensure inflation expectations are anchored and emphasizing fiscal discipline as critical to the conduct of monetary policy.

Brazil IPCA Inflation 4.68% y-o-y (consensus 4.7%) in Nov-23

- Brazil's November 2023 IPCA inflation rate of 4.68% y-o-y was broadly in line with the consensus expectation as it slowed back to the lowest since August 2023.
- This pace is also in line with the 1-year average, indicating predictable stability.