April 18, 2024

Australia Unemployment Rate 3.84% (consensus 3.9%) in Mar-24

- Australia's unemployment rate in Mar-24 increased by marginally less than the consensus forecast, indicating relative stability in the labour market.
- However, the 3.84% rate remains higher than the one-year and long-run averages, and employment decreased, signalling weaker demand.

April 16, 2024
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UK Paying More for Fewer Workers

  • UK unemployment jumped surprisingly far in February 2024 to hit 4.2% as employment fell. More long-term jobless suggests this is neither a new shock nor too disinflationary.
  • Average earnings growth surged by 0.7% m-o-m, meaning the wage bill still rose despite fewer jobs. Regular pay growth is in rude health at 6% y-o-y or 2.1% in real terms.
  • Wage settlements are stuck at 5%, with a skew higher into April. Embedded inflation expectations are too high and demand tight policy despite some cyclical softening.

By Philip Rush

April 08, 2024

Switzerland Unemployment Rate 2.3% (consensus 2.2%) in Mar-24

- Switzerland's unemployment rate for March 2024 was 2.3%, slightly higher than expected and the highest since February 2022.
- The rate is 0.19% above the one-year average, suggesting an unfavourable employment situation through the slightly rising trend.

March 28, 2024
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UK Wage Wealth is an Inflationary Illusion

  • Nominal disposable income continues to surge amid widespread enormous pay rises. Unmatched by productivity, the nominal boost is eroded by inflation to real stagnation.
  • The regime of high nominal increases nonetheless inflates away the debt stock, helping sustain affordability despite forceful interest rate increases.
  • An inflationary reduction in debt burdens is not real wealth. The UK’s net worth is crashing to record negatives as corporates and households suffer post-pandemic.

By Philip Rush