April 18, 2024

Australia Unemployment Rate 3.84% (consensus 3.9%) in Mar-24

- Australia's unemployment rate in Mar-24 increased by marginally less than the consensus forecast, indicating relative stability in the labour market.
- However, the 3.84% rate remains higher than the one-year and long-run averages, and employment decreased, signalling weaker demand.

March 19, 2024

Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Mar-24

  • The RBA's decision to maintain the policy rate at 4.35% reflects moderating headline inflation but ongoing high services inflation, complicating the balance between controlling price levels and supporting economic growth.
  • Economic uncertainties, including the sustainability of productivity growth, global inflation trends, and geopolitical risks, are critical in shaping the RBA's forward-looking monetary policy stance.
  • The RBA emphasizes its commitment to returning inflation to its target range. Future policy decisions will be highly data-driven, taking into account the evolving landscape of domestic demand, labour market conditions, and global economic trends.

February 06, 2024

Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Feb-24

  • The RBA's decision to hold the policy rate steady at 4.35% reflects its cautious approach in light of moderating inflation, particularly in the goods sector, against persistent services inflation and high domestic cost pressures.
  • Economic outlook uncertainties, including global risks, domestic demand dynamics, and labour market tightness, influence the RBA's policy deliberations, with a continued focus on returning inflation to the target range in a balanced and data-driven manner.
  • The RBA emphasizes the priority of inflation targeting within its mandate, indicating that while recent trends show inflation easing, the potential for further interest rate hikes persists, contingent on incoming data and a rigorous assessment of evolving risks.

January 31, 2024

Australia CPI Inflation 4.1% y-o-y (Consensus 4.3%) in Q4-23

- Australia's CPI inflation rate declined to 4.1% YoY in Q4-23, undershooting consensus expectations by 0.2 percentage points.
- The current below-average inflation rate benefitted from a surprisingly steep easing of core pressures.