![AU.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/AU.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722076995&Signature=O4Ibat220eV4SgNn3HjeeSrAi0FZEulVzr3lprtGD9MJQUBga1A~8Ha4Op9XwgikMN0dzIk-jghUyjRtM~9GmJk~aDGMKpGodOaqE24OJ~59NGjAGGv~SjHJXD3SJIZXzlIq~HDw5NMKlVchWmg59jVrk~9icwg4HD7RDy0yEA0cw0VuKMm6gWkue07HqrENRr9UlRnkurN70R2SG0wGQdRQ9fMMlkXPem43xSrmi5lvZnLdL~HjRXO9HKmugjLZylCTx7HkJWG9vqAVZQgxt4s94Pg5sp5H7rwVbc~EyBB2iTIjxhzloBndWdia4e3GR95TrIuC~q8yUSlr7Nk0ng__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Australia RBA Cash Rate Target 4.35% (consensus 4.35%) in Jun-24
- The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%, reflecting a cautious approach in response to persistent inflation and excess demand pressures, aligning with the economic consensus.
- Domestic consumption trends, labour market conditions, and global economic uncertainties will influence future policy decisions, focusing on achieving the 2-3% inflation target by the second half of 2025.
- The RBA emphasizes data-driven decision-making and remains vigilant to upside inflation risks, maintaining flexibility in its policy stance to ensure inflation returns to target sustainably.
![AU.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/AU.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722076995&Signature=O4Ibat220eV4SgNn3HjeeSrAi0FZEulVzr3lprtGD9MJQUBga1A~8Ha4Op9XwgikMN0dzIk-jghUyjRtM~9GmJk~aDGMKpGodOaqE24OJ~59NGjAGGv~SjHJXD3SJIZXzlIq~HDw5NMKlVchWmg59jVrk~9icwg4HD7RDy0yEA0cw0VuKMm6gWkue07HqrENRr9UlRnkurN70R2SG0wGQdRQ9fMMlkXPem43xSrmi5lvZnLdL~HjRXO9HKmugjLZylCTx7HkJWG9vqAVZQgxt4s94Pg5sp5H7rwVbc~EyBB2iTIjxhzloBndWdia4e3GR95TrIuC~q8yUSlr7Nk0ng__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Australia Unemployment Rate 4.0% (consensus 4.0%) in May-24
- Australia's unemployment rate dipped to 4.0% in May 2024, reversing a third of April's rise, with employment increasing by 39,700 jobs, indicative of ongoing labour market resilience.
- Economic indicators reveal a dichotomy in recovery, with robust service sector performance (PMI Services 52.5) counterbalanced by manufacturing sector vulnerabilities (PMI Manufacturing 49.7) and tepid consumer spending growth (retail sales 0.1% m-o-m in April 2024).
![2024-05-23 pmi_head.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/2024-05-23_pmi_head.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722076995&Signature=pLAlGsNZQ3ISIXJhxHCtTXmKpyVcWakqfvJ1tPBIQ-sBxblKHzh1T4y-HxoUfn2RZhUElUnl~NjPtWRfiDaoizcWZ-Lx-h9zIICSaq7nMBu8eRBvO4l-3LEkb2etpW1arjPS~Uby3fDkYzdGnnb434kvSSIRl41VR77UuZ8AgEIbZ0KOIxvgchamluCsxoIfqvr4RJc9pJCgqupkWI3wUAj1fEBMvQCHmBA9pKUYleQdYr0uboODWDKYy8BP5rVh0LJikhyfj6h-v0A~~qLAkyjZZJUGB41hpJNIKyYHp1nSvW34rk19A65LEaJ8zo51dd7IdsQ0OUNKXL8ScpP~4g__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Peak PMI Pace Probably Passing
- The PMIs probably peaked in the spring, with the US’s jump beyond its peers in May setting it up for a more substantial drop during the summer.
- Residual seasonality from the pandemic-corrupted adjustment factors will likely exaggerate the US payback as part of a softening global story.
- A summer downturn should support the re-emergence of dovish debate in the US, where we still expect a September cut. However, global policy only looks a little tight.
By Philip Rush
![AU.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/AU.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722076995&Signature=O4Ibat220eV4SgNn3HjeeSrAi0FZEulVzr3lprtGD9MJQUBga1A~8Ha4Op9XwgikMN0dzIk-jghUyjRtM~9GmJk~aDGMKpGodOaqE24OJ~59NGjAGGv~SjHJXD3SJIZXzlIq~HDw5NMKlVchWmg59jVrk~9icwg4HD7RDy0yEA0cw0VuKMm6gWkue07HqrENRr9UlRnkurN70R2SG0wGQdRQ9fMMlkXPem43xSrmi5lvZnLdL~HjRXO9HKmugjLZylCTx7HkJWG9vqAVZQgxt4s94Pg5sp5H7rwVbc~EyBB2iTIjxhzloBndWdia4e3GR95TrIuC~q8yUSlr7Nk0ng__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Australia Unemployment Rate 4.05% (consensus 3.9%) in Apr-24
- The unemployment rate in Australia increased to 4.05% in April 2024, surpassing the consensus forecast of 3.9% by returning to the highest level since January.
- That slackening occurred despite a surprisingly large employment increase of 38,500 in April, owing to faster labour force growth.
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