Archive

Australia CPI Inflation 3.6% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Q1-24

- Australia's CPI inflation rate dropped by 0.5 percentage points to 3.6% y-o-y in Q1-24, but that still exceeded consensus expectations of 3.4%.
- The upside news was in underlying pressures as the weighted median held at 4.4%, and the trimmed mean disappointed by only slowing 0.2pp to 4%.

Singapore CPI Inflation 2.7% y-o-y (consensus 3.0%) in Mar-24

- Singapore's CPI inflation in March 2024 dropped to 2.7% y-o-y, lower than the market consensus of 3.0%, indicating a surprisingly steep moderation of price pressures.
- The inflation rate stands 1.34 percentage points below the one-year average, highlighting a persistent disinflationary trend in Singapore.

Japan CPI 2.7% y-o-y (consensus 2.7%) in Mar-24

- Japan's CPI inflation slowed by 0.1 percentage points to 2.7% year-on-year in March 2024, as expected.
- There was some downside news as core inflation slowed by a tenth further than the consensus forecast to reach 2.6%.

UK Stuck With High Services Inflation

• UK CPI inflation exceeded the consensus by 0.1pp as it only slowed to 3.2% in March, as we forecasted. Services inflation stuck at 6%, and high-frequency impulses increased.
• Persistently high pay settlements sustain wage and underlying price inflation above target-consistent levels. We only see services slowing below 4.5% in September.
• We expect the BoE to cut in November after the ECB and Fed. Further resilience in UK and global data could still cause all three to roll back even further.

By Philip Rush