Archive

January 21, 2026
2026-01-21 UK_head.png

UK: Inflationary Bump On Slow Descent

  • UK inflation’s rebound reversed much of the recent undershoot, partly because of airfares, and despite the early index date. Seasonal payback will weigh in January.
  • There is little headline news for the BoE since November, while underlying inflation is too strong, supported by the fundamental pressure from excessive wage growth.
  • Our forecast continues to trend above the consensus through the year, which could encourage the MPC to keep rolling back its assumed rate cut, then never deliver it.

By Philip Rush

January 19, 2026
2026-01-19 EA_head.png

EA: Food Prices Take Another Bite

  • EA inflation printed lower than the flash again at 1.94%, also because of food prices, but the 1.6bp nibble out of the headline rate still isn’t fundamentally significant.
  • Median inflation remains stuck below the target, offsetting the hawkish signal from other underlying statistical measures that better reflect the resilience of wage growth.
  • The ECB can remain comfortable with its “good place” assessment until it sees more evidence of inflation persistence stoking the headline. We still see no more ECB cuts.

By Philip Rush

January 13, 2026
2026-01-13 US_head.png

US Inflation Resumes Without Payback

  • US inflation resumed its monthly trend in headline, core, and underlying services after nonsensical methodological noise around the shutdown, including non-collection itself.
  • Payback from late sampling in November didn’t have an apparent inflationary effect, perhaps because the gap between collections didn’t leave long for other prices to rise.
  • Surprises are skewing lower, but inflation is stuck above the target, so there isn’t a compelling case to cut again. We still expect the Fed to hold rates in January.

By Philip Rush

January 07, 2026
2026-01-07 EA_head.png

EA: De-energised Back To Target

  • EA inflation slowed back to target at the end of 2025, reversing November’s upside news to strengthen the ECB’s “good place” caricature.
  • Falling energy prices are driving an unsustainable disinflation, while service price inflation is stuck above 3%. Small and balanced EA surprises skew lower in big states.
  • Base effects remain set to drive a drop below the target and reversal by May. A slightly below target 2026 is not dovish when underlying pressures are stronger.

By Philip Rush

By country