Archive

March 25, 2024
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Oil: A Fine Line

  • The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton


March 19, 2024
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Russia: Putin 5.0

  • Vladimir Putin’s election victory reflects not only rigging but also the reality that many Russians see no alternative. Neither the Ukraine war per se nor a deteriorating non-war economy is likely significantly to change this as the President sets his sights on another election victory in 2030.

By Alastair Newton


March 14, 2024
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On A Slow Boat To China

  • As expected, this month’s National People’s Congress did little to alleviate China’s immediate economic malaise. Furthermore, it confirmed Xi Jinping’s determination to follow a course that owes more to his obsession with power than his longer-term economic vision.

By Alastair Newton


March 06, 2024
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UK Flogging A Dead Horse

  • The UK Budget should be the last fiscal statement before the general election. It merely sold more of the same fiscal approach, measures, and political focus to weary voters.
  • A fiscal windfall was spent on a national insurance tax cut in an ongoing effective reconfiguration from income tax. Non-dom reform steals a bad Labour policy.
  • Challenges for the next Labour government are increasingly severe but not scaring markets. Loose fiscal policy is sustaining the need for relatively high interest rates.

By Philip Rush