Archive

August 11, 2025
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US/Taiwan: Xi Calls The Shots

  • In stark contrast to its dealings with other trade partners, Washington is firmly in the position of supplicant in its dealings with Beijing.
  • This reflects not only Xi Jinping’s carefully prepared and strong hand but also Donald Trump’s seeming determination to strike a deal with China at more or less any cost.
  • Increasingly, therefore, Taiwan stands to be “a pawn in a bigger game”.

By Alastair Newton

July 28, 2025
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Opec: Twist Or Stick?

  • The further acceleration by ‘Opec+ eight’ in unwinding the second package of voluntary output cuts was a surprise, albeit one that left markets unmoved.
  • The cartel now appears to be firmly on track to complete its unwinding in September, even though its stated justifications for increasing output remain highly questionable.
  • Despite downside global growth risks, the Saudis in particular may press to start unwinding the first package, a move which may be announced as early as next week.

By Alastair Newton

July 22, 2025
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UK Fiscal Slippage Rules

  • The UK’s de facto fiscal rule is slippage, with a £50bn to £100bn increase in borrowing between initial official forecasts and outcomes. 2025-26 made another slippery start.
  • Politicians spend any space in the OBR forecasts, skewing surprises to higher spending. Yet tax hikes keep failing to raise the hoped revenue, motivating further increases.
  • Investors should not be fooled by forecasts for consolidation when the failed strategy driving the fiscal slippage rule survives. Issuance may stay near £300bn in 2029-30.

By Philip Rush

July 21, 2025
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US Politics: ‘As Ye Sow…’

  • The Epstein files row has intensified deep splits in the MAGA movement and triggered persistent demands for accountability.
  • Trump’s recent pivot towards supporting Ukraine and critical foreign policy shifts have fuelled further rifts among his traditional base.
  • Despite controversies, the key midterm factor remains Trump’s economic agenda, as tariffs and fiscal changes may hit his core supporters hardest.

By Alastair Newton

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