Archive

June 24, 2025
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Israel/Iran/US: Ten Pointers

  • ‘Events’ over the past four days have underlined how hard it is to forecast with any degree of confidence how the Iran/Israel conflict will unfold. However, and recent headline-driven volatility notwithstanding, the supply/demand equation continues to dominate market thinking on oil.

By Alastair Newton

June 17, 2025
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US/China: Sprint vs Stamina

  • Last week’s US/China trade talks underlined the extent to which Beijing has the upper hand in terms of both leverage and willingness to dig in. Avoiding a re-escalation at the end of the current 90-day truce, therefore, depends on Washington giving more ground.

By Alastair Newton

June 09, 2025
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Trade Avoidance Easing Shocks

  • China’s crashing exports to the US partly reflect avoidance measures, including rerouting through other countries and marking down import prices to subsidiaries.
  • Exports to the EU and UK are only trending slightly higher, making little difference to disinflation. ASEAN countries, and especially Vietnam, are seeing trade surge again.
  • The US may clamp down on avoidance measures that have eased the shock so far. It could make a painful example of one to encourage concessions from all trade partners.

By Philip Rush

June 04, 2025
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US vs EU: Mutually Assured Destruction?

  • The consensus over Section 899 is that it is about leverage and deterrence, and that it is unlikely ever to be fully deployed, given the damage it would do to the US itself. However, what if the EU, in particular, calls Mr Trump’s bluff and/or it is intended even in part as a revenue-raising measure?

By Alastair Newton

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