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May 12, 2025
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Oil: How Low Will It Go?

  • Riyadh’s acceleration in unwinding cuts to oil output is now widely seen as a drive to squeeze out high-cost producers, especially US shale. However, no matter how low the price of crude oil goes, tariff-related economic uncertainties make success no more certain than it was in 2014-16.

By Alastair Newton

May 07, 2025
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Trading Inside Trump’s Collar

  • Market volatility is closely tied to US politics, where unfriendly measures can cap equity prices, while reversals limit potential falls, creating a political floor and ceiling.
  • Attempts to avoid all losses lose relevance if they can reverse swiftly. Hedging against falls in the SP500 beyond recent lows better matches the risk of a recessionary crash.
  • Selling year-end upside above 5750 covers the insurance cost and nets a 3.8% return, with price losses and gains capped at 7% and 6.4% by this “Trump Collar” strategy.

By Philip Rush

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