Archive

April 08, 2025
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UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs

  • The UK output destroyed by reciprocal US tariffs is only partly due to the direct impact of the new 10% rate (worth ~0.2% of GDP) and generally weaker US prospects (0.1%).
  • Global GDP growth is depressed by this policy, indirectly destroying demand for UK exports from elsewhere (0.2%), especially if countries harm themselves by retaliating.
  • An overall 0.6% GDP hit has two-sided risks and a skew lowered by likely negotiations. Fears of items dumping into the UK market are overblown excuses for protectionism.

By Philip Rush

April 07, 2025
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US vs EU: Worse to Come

  • The response to ‘Liberation Day’ by policymakers and investors alike still falls short of appreciating the scale of the threat posed by the US, as ‘transactional Trump’ is succeeded by a president who seeks to turn the clock back to a supposedly golden era in his quest to make America great again.

By Alastair Newton

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