Archive

April 22, 2025
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Prisoner's Dilemma For Ukraine

  • Ukraine cannot avoid painful settlements as the US and Russia pull its resources apart. Europe has no veto over US taxpayers and can’t block all attempts to loosen sanctions.
  • Further progress to peace is likely over the next few months. If the US walks away from talks, it is most likely dropping support too, postponing peace while Russia gains more.
  • Intensifying support would raise risks along a hard-fought market-negative path. Risks will also remain more elevated in Korea after Ukraine’s misguided incursion into Russia.

By Philip Rush

April 14, 2025
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US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds

  • Although Donald Trump’s U-turn may allow time for the conclusion of bilateral trade negotiations with some US partners, neither China nor the EU is likely to strike an agreement imminently, especially now that America’s vulnerability to the bond market has become all too clear.

By Alastair Newton

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