Archive

August 26, 2025
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Russia/Ukraine: What Now?

  • A week after the event, it is clear that the Trump/Putin summit presented the latter with a big win at little, if any, cost.
  • Donald Trump is unlikely to come up with anything that will bring Mr Putin to the negotiating table in good faith once his latest two-week ‘deadline’ expires.
  • Furthermore, Mr Trump remains philosophically inclined to favour Russia, a leaning that probably poses a greater risk to Kyiv than Mr Putin himself does.

By Alastair Newton

August 11, 2025
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US/Taiwan: Xi Calls The Shots

  • In stark contrast to its dealings with other trade partners, Washington is firmly in the position of supplicant in its dealings with Beijing.
  • This reflects not only Xi Jinping’s carefully prepared and strong hand but also Donald Trump’s seeming determination to strike a deal with China at more or less any cost.
  • Increasingly, therefore, Taiwan stands to be “a pawn in a bigger game”.

By Alastair Newton

July 28, 2025
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Opec: Twist Or Stick?

  • The further acceleration by ‘Opec+ eight’ in unwinding the second package of voluntary output cuts was a surprise, albeit one that left markets unmoved.
  • The cartel now appears to be firmly on track to complete its unwinding in September, even though its stated justifications for increasing output remain highly questionable.
  • Despite downside global growth risks, the Saudis in particular may press to start unwinding the first package, a move which may be announced as early as next week.

By Alastair Newton

July 22, 2025
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UK Fiscal Slippage Rules

  • The UK’s de facto fiscal rule is slippage, with a £50bn to £100bn increase in borrowing between initial official forecasts and outcomes. 2025-26 made another slippery start.
  • Politicians spend any space in the OBR forecasts, skewing surprises to higher spending. Yet tax hikes keep failing to raise the hoped revenue, motivating further increases.
  • Investors should not be fooled by forecasts for consolidation when the failed strategy driving the fiscal slippage rule survives. Issuance may stay near £300bn in 2029-30.

By Philip Rush

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