Archive

December 11, 2023
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Outlook 2024: 1997 Redux?

  • Although October/November is still the most likely timing of the next UK general election, internal Conservative rifts over immigration, in particular, could spur Rishi Sunak towards 2 May to minimise the scale of a seemingly inevitable defeat.

By Alastair Newton

December 04, 2023
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Outlook 2024: The Big Issue, Part 1

  • Although a re-run next November of the 2020 presidential battle looks highly probable, it is not yet inevitable, especially when both parties would boost their chances of victory if they were to drop their current frontrunner. What odds are Haley vs Harris?

By Alastair Newton

November 27, 2023
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Good COP, Bad COP

  • Despite some positive signs from both China and the US, the world’s two biggest emitters, and determined conference chairing by the UAE, expectations for COP28 are rightly low, with the onus to do better resting primarily on the financially stretched and distracted developed world.

By Alastair Newton

November 22, 2023
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UK: Buying Votes With Inflationary Policy

  • The UK Autumn Statement announced tax cuts that broadly spend the entire windfall from a less enormous current fiscal deficit while reinforcing inflation’s persistence.
  • Voter income is boosted ahead of a general election through surging benefits, pensions, and minimum wage rates. National insurance cuts also raise take-home pay.
  • Fiscal headroom of £13bn is preserved, although that uses the flexibility of extending the target date. Its existence still relies on excessively bullish potential GDP forecasts.

By Philip Rush

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