Archive

June 04, 2025
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US vs EU: Mutually Assured Destruction?

  • The consensus over Section 899 is that it is about leverage and deterrence, and that it is unlikely ever to be fully deployed, given the damage it would do to the US itself. However, what if the EU, in particular, calls Mr Trump’s bluff and/or it is intended even in part as a revenue-raising measure?

By Alastair Newton

May 27, 2025
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US vs EU: Crying ‘Wolf’?

  • Ursula von der Leyen’s 25 May call with Donald Trump can be seen as a ‘win’ for the US President following his threat to impose 50% tariffs on the EU from 1 June. Alternatively, one could see his reversion as the latest manifestation of the TACO principle.

By Alastair Newton

May 20, 2025
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Trump Doctrine: All Talk And No Trousers

  • Despite the frenetic activity in the international arena that we have seen from the US in recent weeks, whether in trade or diplomacy, showmanship continues to trump substance, thereby posing real risks for policymakers and investors alike.

By Alastair Newton

May 14, 2025
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USD Bears Broke The Bandwagon

  • Investors ask whether threats to the USD’s reserve currency status are resting or dead, whereas we wonder if it was ever alive. Commentators routinely overextend narratives.
  • The USD share of allocated FX reserves is already trending downward. A potential acceleration from smaller deficits and higher tariffs would partly offset the impact.
  • Fuller hedging of USD asset holdings abroad may have already reached its limit. We still see more attractive mispricing elsewhere, such as excessively dovish rate curves.

By Philip Rush

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