Archive

February 06, 2023
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HEM: The Hike Isn’t Over Yet

  • Resilient activity stops cyclical excesses from ending
  • Underlying inflation is too high despite CPI slowing
  • BoE hikes are under-priced as it asserts its credibility
  • ECB hikes should extend with the cycle beyond March
  • Market desire for a policy victory does not make it so
January 05, 2023
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HEM: The Long Road Down

  • UK and EA output are falling into recession
  • The return from inflation’s peak has been energised
  • Another 50bp BoE hike in Feb-23 is underpriced
  • ECB cuts are overpriced in H2 2023
  • 2024 should enjoy growth, less inflation and rate cuts

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