Archive

September 04, 2023
hem_head2.png

HEM: Cuts Can Wait for Godot

  • The BoE-Fed “Icarus Spread” has melted further
  • Disinflation is not yet on course to meet targets
  • Wage growth pushes BoE hikes as the ECB pauses
  • Policy doesn’t look too tight amid resilient activity
  • High neutral rates mean cuts can roll later
August 07, 2023
hem_head2.png

HEM: Persistent Policy Peaks

  • The BoE-Fed “Icarus Spread” has crashed to earth
  • UK excess is less special outside wage settlements
  • BoE hikes have further to go, but the ECB may pause
  • Resilient activity data don’t justify turning looser
  • Global rate cuts will be slow to a high neutral level

By country