Archive

October 02, 2023
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HEM: Autumn Lifts EU Gloom

  • Cuts are rolling back while neutral rates grind higher
  • Residual seasonality overstates EA/UK summer gloom
  • Underlying inflation is close to the target
  • Excess wage growth encourages a final BoE hike
  • We still see limited cuts only coming after a long wait
September 04, 2023
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HEM: Cuts Can Wait for Godot

  • The BoE-Fed “Icarus Spread” has melted further
  • Disinflation is not yet on course to meet targets
  • Wage growth pushes BoE hikes as the ECB pauses
  • Policy doesn’t look too tight amid resilient activity
  • High neutral rates mean cuts can roll later

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