Archive

December 01, 2022
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HEM: A Reassuring Recession

  • Forecast uncertainty is narrowing around recession
  • Confidence is rising about inflation having peaked
  • Rate hikes can revert to smaller increments in Dec-22
  • Cuts back to neutral will probably begin in 2024
November 01, 2022
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HEM: Scorched Earth Paths

  • Inflation forecast drift is pushing more rate hikes
  • Recessions are accepted collateral damage
  • The BoE need not hike beyond the Fed in 2023
  • The ECB path should be more curvaceous than priced

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