November 01, 2022
HEM: Scorched Earth Paths
- Inflation forecast drift is pushing more rate hikes
- Recessions are accepted collateral damage
- The BoE need not hike beyond the Fed in 2023
- The ECB path should be more curvaceous than priced
October 05, 2022
HEM: Settling into Recession
- Aggressive rate hikes are pushing for recessions
- Inflationary trends have support from a sticky core
- The BoE should resist beating the Fed’s hikes
- The ECB risks breaking the EA before hitting neutral
September 05, 2022
HEM: Summertime Sadness
- High inflation has infected the EA’s core again
- Rising prices and rates push activity near contraction
- The UK cycle is moving closer to a burn out phase
- BoE rate hikes need not overshoot the Fed
- Aggressive ECB hikes may break things early again
August 01, 2022
HEM: Pains Getting Severe
- Easing of core inflation pressures is not yet assured
- Demand volumes are being crushed
- A cyclical burnout phase is developing in the UK
- The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
- The ECB started big and should slow to 25bp steps
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