September 01, 2021
HEM: a hard end to summer
- Covid and capacity constraints are set to bite
- Disappointing demand supports dovish policy
- Inflation’s peak is squeezing longer and higher
- We expect the BoE to delay its first hike to 2023
- ECB tapering looks more likely in Dec than Sep-21
August 02, 2021
HEM: slowing after surge
- Reflation can now cruise to transitory highs
- Activity growth starting to slow early
- BoE wavers as optimism peaks
- ECB tapering postponed beyond Sep-21
July 05, 2021
HEM: twin peaks in pace
- Reflation eases before its last hurrah
- Activity growth topping-out
- BoE persisting with stimulus plans
- ECB’s peak purchase pace extends to Sep-21
