September 01, 2021

HEM: a hard end to summer

  • Covid and capacity constraints are set to bite
  • Disappointing demand supports dovish policy
  • Inflation’s peak is squeezing longer and higher
  • We expect the BoE to delay its first hike to 2023
  • ECB tapering looks more likely in Dec than Sep-21

August 02, 2021

HEM: slowing after surge

  • Reflation can now cruise to transitory highs
  • Activity growth starting to slow early
  • BoE wavers as optimism peaks
  • ECB tapering postponed beyond Sep-21

July 05, 2021

HEM: twin peaks in pace

  • Reflation eases before its last hurrah
  • Activity growth topping-out
  • BoE persisting with stimulus plans
  • ECB’s peak purchase pace extends to Sep-21