Archive

November 01, 2022
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HEM: Scorched Earth Paths

  • Inflation forecast drift is pushing more rate hikes
  • Recessions are accepted collateral damage
  • The BoE need not hike beyond the Fed in 2023
  • The ECB path should be more curvaceous than priced

October 05, 2022
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HEM: Settling into Recession

  • Aggressive rate hikes are pushing for recessions
  • Inflationary trends have support from a sticky core
  • The BoE should resist beating the Fed’s hikes
  • The ECB risks breaking the EA before hitting neutral

September 05, 2022
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HEM: Summertime Sadness

  • High inflation has infected the EA’s core again
  • Rising prices and rates push activity near contraction
  • The UK cycle is moving closer to a burn out phase
  • BoE rate hikes need not overshoot the Fed
  • Aggressive ECB hikes may break things early again

August 01, 2022
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HEM: Pains Getting Severe

  • Easing of core inflation pressures is not yet assured
  • Demand volumes are being crushed
  • A cyclical burnout phase is developing in the UK
  • The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
  • The ECB started big and should slow to 25bp steps