Archive

October 07, 2024
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HEM: Sugar Rush

  • Forceful Fed easing was inconsistent with resilient data
  • Underlying wage inflation remains excessive
  • We see 25bp cuts at the next ECB, BoE and Fed meets
  • Cuts are likely to stop early in 2025 as 1998 replays
  • Excessive frontloaded easing can blow bubbles
September 02, 2024
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HEM: Dovish Delirium

  • Fed pricing defies resilient activity and the risk rally
  • Underlying wage inflation remains excessive
  • We expect 25bp Fed and ECB cuts in Sep (BoE in Nov)
  • Excessive easing can blow bubbles like in 1998
  • We still see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
August 05, 2024
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HEM: Punch Drunk Doves

  • Weaker activity is providing doves with an excuse to cut
  • Fed pricing is overextending the limited easing required
  • Underlying wage inflation remains excessive
  • Premature stimulus can blow bubbles like in 1998
  • We still see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
July 01, 2024
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HEM: Doves Stay the Course

  • The dovish BoE seems too desperate to cut in August
  • Another ECB cut in Sep relies on the Fed starting then
  • Excessive labour cost growth is being overly discounted
  • Premature stimulus can blow bubbles like in 1998
  • We still see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts

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