Archive

March 04, 2025
2025-03-04 HEM_head.png

HEM: Pausing Policy Easing

  • Central banks should slow, pause, or stop cutting rates
  • Inflation revisions are drifting up and surprising higher
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
  • Rate hikes in 2026 could reverse unnecessary easing
February 03, 2025
2025-02-03 HEM_head.png

HEM: One More For The Road

  • BoE, ECB and Fed cuts are likely at their next meeting
  • We expect at least a policy pause beyond that
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
  • The ECB is not as exceptional as markets dovishly price
January 06, 2025
2025-01-06 HEM_head.png

HEM: Easing Evaporating

  • Cutting cycles are shrinking towards looking nearly over
  • The ECB is not as exceptional as it is dovishly priced
  • We see the Fed skipping Jan for a final March cut
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
December 02, 2024
2024-12-02 HEM_head.png

HEM: Shrinking Euro Doves

  • Europe’s underperformance is over-priced
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
  • We see the BoE on hold while the ECB and Fed cut 25bp
  • Cuts remain likely to stop early in 2025 as 1998 replays

By country