Archive

August 05, 2024
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HEM: Punch Drunk Doves

  • Weaker activity is providing doves with an excuse to cut
  • Fed pricing is overextending the limited easing required
  • Underlying wage inflation remains excessive
  • Premature stimulus can blow bubbles like in 1998
  • We still see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
July 01, 2024
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HEM: Doves Stay the Course

  • The dovish BoE seems too desperate to cut in August
  • Another ECB cut in Sep relies on the Fed starting then
  • Excessive labour cost growth is being overly discounted
  • Premature stimulus can blow bubbles like in 1998
  • We still see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
June 03, 2024
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HEM: Policy Blowing Bubbles

  • Rate cuts appear close: ECB in June and BoE in August
  • Further cuts depend on the Fed starting in September
  • Excessive labour cost growth is sustaining inflation
  • Premature stimulus can blow bubbles like in 1998
  • We see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
May 01, 2024
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HEM: Molting Hawk Feathers

  • Rolling rate cuts have flattened the front end enough
  • Hikes are unlikely despite limited cuts coming later
  • Market pricing may overshoot before we become dovish
  • Our Nov-24 BoE call is still slightly later than priced
  • A Fed delay beyond Sep would slow ECB cuts after June

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