March 07, 2022

HEM: pressures exploding

  • Energy compounds excessive core inflation pressures
  • Tight labour markets reinforce the hawkish case
  • The BoE is front-loading rate hikes in 2022
  • We expect the ECB to join it in Dec-22 belatedly

January 31, 2022

HEM: inflation eating 2022

  • Underlying inflation has risen to worrying highs
  • Real growth is eroded with incomes and capacity
  • The BoE can slow hikes if prices don’t pass to wages
  • The ECB now looks likely to hike early in 2023

January 06, 2022

HEM: squeezing into 2022

  • Excess inflation is moving from energy to the core
  • Renewed restrictions are squeezing winter activity
  • The BoE is likely to tighten less than priced in 2022
  • The ECB is still gradually slowing its stimulus