Archive

August 01, 2022
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HEM: Pains Getting Severe

  • Easing of core inflation pressures is not yet assured
  • Demand volumes are being crushed
  • A cyclical burnout phase is developing in the UK
  • The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
  • The ECB started big and should slow to 25bp steps
July 05, 2022
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HEM: Pain Stunts Growth

  • Demand is struggling with painfully high inflation
  • Core inflation pressures appear to be turning down
  • The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
  • The ECB has pre-committed to hikes in Jul and Sep
June 06, 2022
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HEM: Inflation Pain Bites

  • Upside inflation surprises have eased as peaks near
  • Demand destruction is becoming apparent
  • The BoE seems set to hike in Jun and Aug then slow
  • The ECB has similarly positioned hikes in Jul and Sep
May 03, 2022
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HEM: Moderating Moves

  • Inflation near painful peaks pushes policy tightening
  • Real activity suffering is likely to bound the move
  • The BoE seems set to hike again on 5 May, then slow
  • The ECB can begin on 8 Sep at a more gradual pace

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