September 02, 2024

HEM: Dovish Delirium
- Fed pricing defies resilient activity and the risk rally
- Underlying wage inflation remains excessive
- We expect 25bp Fed and ECB cuts in Sep (BoE in Nov)
- Excessive easing can blow bubbles like in 1998
- We still see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
August 05, 2024

HEM: Punch Drunk Doves
- Weaker activity is providing doves with an excuse to cut
- Fed pricing is overextending the limited easing required
- Underlying wage inflation remains excessive
- Premature stimulus can blow bubbles like in 1998
- We still see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
July 01, 2024

HEM: Doves Stay the Course
- The dovish BoE seems too desperate to cut in August
- Another ECB cut in Sep relies on the Fed starting then
- Excessive labour cost growth is being overly discounted
- Premature stimulus can blow bubbles like in 1998
- We still see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
June 03, 2024

HEM: Policy Blowing Bubbles
- Rate cuts appear close: ECB in June and BoE in August
- Further cuts depend on the Fed starting in September
- Excessive labour cost growth is sustaining inflation
- Premature stimulus can blow bubbles like in 1998
- We see a risk of rate hikes in 2025 to reverse cuts
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