December 01, 2021

HEM: winter chills

  • Peak inflation is near, but the excess persists in 2022
  • The omicron threat should slow growth even further
  • BoE tightening is likely to be surprisingly gradual
  • The ECB is still weighing its stimulus withdrawal

November 01, 2021

HEM: under pressure

  • Energy prices are extending the inflationary excess
  • Real incomes and growth are being squeezed
  • Policymakers should resist making it much worse
  • The BoE is pressuring itself to ward off elusive risks
  • The ECB dismisses pricing that’s not close to its view

October 04, 2021

HEM: squeezed into the fall

  • Capacity constraints are binding worse than feared
  • Inflation’s peak is squeezing even longer and higher
  • Tighter policy would worsen disappointing demand
  • The BoE’s tough talk should stay just words
  • ECB tapering should not fall off a cliff with PEPP