June 06, 2022

HEM: Inflation Pain Bites

  • Upside inflation surprises have eased as peaks near
  • Demand destruction is becoming apparent
  • The BoE seems set to hike in Jun and Aug then slow
  • The ECB has similarly positioned hikes in Jul and Sep

May 03, 2022

HEM: Moderating Moves

  • Inflation near painful peaks pushes policy tightening
  • Real activity suffering is likely to bound the move
  • The BoE seems set to hike again on 5 May, then slow
  • The ECB can begin on 8 Sep at a more gradual pace

April 04, 2022

HEM: Up, Up, and Away

  • Trending inflation increases are pushing policy rates
  • Tight labour markets only reinforce the hawkish case
  • The BoE is likely to hike again in May, then slow
  • We expect the ECB to join it in Sep-22 after tapering