August 01, 2022
HEM: Pains Getting Severe
- Easing of core inflation pressures is not yet assured
- Demand volumes are being crushed
- A cyclical burnout phase is developing in the UK
- The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
- The ECB started big and should slow to 25bp steps
July 05, 2022
HEM: Pain Stunts Growth
- Demand is struggling with painfully high inflation
- Core inflation pressures appear to be turning down
- The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
- The ECB has pre-committed to hikes in Jul and Sep
June 06, 2022
HEM: Inflation Pain Bites
- Upside inflation surprises have eased as peaks near
- Demand destruction is becoming apparent
- The BoE seems set to hike in Jun and Aug then slow
- The ECB has similarly positioned hikes in Jul and Sep
