July 07, 2025

HEM: Rolling Resilience
- Activity remains resilient, and labour markets are tight
- Underlying price and wage inflation mostly track >2%
- Doves assume this regime breaks, but it isn’t happening
- Cuts can keep rolling later and may never materialise
- Rate hikes are more historically usual after pausing
June 02, 2025

HEM: Better Never Than Late
- Companies are smoothing out volatile trade policies
- Activity remains strong and labour markets are tight
- Underlying price and wage inflation is still too high
- Markets expect cuts to resume later, contrary to history
- The risk of rate hikes in 2026 is widely underappreciated
May 06, 2025

HEM: Dovish Prices Deranged
- Activity remains surprisingly strong, defying dovish fears
- Labour markets are tight, and manufacturing is stable
- Underlying price and wage inflation is still too high
- Rates underrepresent the rebounding risk sentiment
- BoE cut pricing ahead of the Fed looks the most deranged
March 31, 2025

HEM: Fear of Fear Itself
- Fear of tariffs and DOGE is depressing vibes in US surveys
- Resilient labour markets suggest dovish fear is overblown
- Underlying price and wage inflation remains too high
- Paused easing cycles do not resume without recessions
- Reversing unnecessary easing remains more likely in 2026
By type
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Inflation
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Politics
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Monetary Policy
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Activity