Archive

March 31, 2025
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HEM: Fear of Fear Itself

  • Fear of tariffs and DOGE is depressing vibes in US surveys
  • Resilient labour markets suggest dovish fear is overblown
  • Underlying price and wage inflation remains too high
  • Paused easing cycles do not resume without recessions
  • Reversing unnecessary easing remains more likely in 2026
March 04, 2025
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HEM: Pausing Policy Easing

  • Central banks should slow, pause, or stop cutting rates
  • Inflation revisions are drifting up and surprising higher
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
  • Rate hikes in 2026 could reverse unnecessary easing
February 03, 2025
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HEM: One More For The Road

  • BoE, ECB and Fed cuts are likely at their next meeting
  • We expect at least a policy pause beyond that
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
  • The ECB is not as exceptional as markets dovishly price
January 06, 2025
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HEM: Easing Evaporating

  • Cutting cycles are shrinking towards looking nearly over
  • The ECB is not as exceptional as it is dovishly priced
  • We see the Fed skipping Jan for a final March cut
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral

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