September 05, 2022
HEM: Summertime Sadness
- High inflation has infected the EA’s core again
- Rising prices and rates push activity near contraction
- The UK cycle is moving closer to a burn out phase
- BoE rate hikes need not overshoot the Fed
- Aggressive ECB hikes may break things early again
August 01, 2022
HEM: Pains Getting Severe
- Easing of core inflation pressures is not yet assured
- Demand volumes are being crushed
- A cyclical burnout phase is developing in the UK
- The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
- The ECB started big and should slow to 25bp steps
July 05, 2022
HEM: Pain Stunts Growth
- Demand is struggling with painfully high inflation
- Core inflation pressures appear to be turning down
- The BoE should resist raising its hiking pace
- The ECB has pre-committed to hikes in Jul and Sep
