February 03, 2025

HEM: One More For The Road
- BoE, ECB and Fed cuts are likely at their next meeting
- We expect at least a policy pause beyond that
- Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
- Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
- The ECB is not as exceptional as markets dovishly price
January 06, 2025

HEM: Easing Evaporating
- Cutting cycles are shrinking towards looking nearly over
- The ECB is not as exceptional as it is dovishly priced
- We see the Fed skipping Jan for a final March cut
- Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
- Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
December 02, 2024

HEM: Shrinking Euro Doves
- Europe’s underperformance is over-priced
- Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
- Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
- We see the BoE on hold while the ECB and Fed cut 25bp
- Cuts remain likely to stop early in 2025 as 1998 replays
November 04, 2024

HEM: De-risking For Election
- Geopolitical risks urge caution after recent market moves
- Unemployment trends suggest monetary policy isn’t tight
- Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
- We see 25bp cuts at the next ECB, BoE and Fed meets
- Cuts remain likely to stop early in 2025 as 1998 replays
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