September 01, 2025

HEM: Politicised Policy Pricing
- Persistent inflationary pressures pared dovish guidance and pricing for the BoE and ECB, but Fed pricing is stuck.
- Blocking a rare resumption of Fed easing looks unlikely, but history suggests cuts would be shallow and reversed.
- Peer pressure is weak during a policy mistake. The BoE faces domestic problems that prevent further easing.
August 04, 2025

HEM: One-Touch Easing
- Payrolls revisions challenge the rolling resilience seen in most other hard data releases, but seem over-weighted.
- Underlying price and wage inflation mostly track >2%, especially in the UK, which doesn’t need more rate cuts.
- Policymakers biased to ease will deliver it on a batch of bad outcomes, even if the evidence proves fleeting.
July 07, 2025

HEM: Rolling Resilience
- Activity remains resilient, and labour markets are tight
- Underlying price and wage inflation mostly track >2%
- Doves assume this regime breaks, but it isn’t happening
- Cuts can keep rolling later and may never materialise
- Rate hikes are more historically usual after pausing
June 02, 2025

HEM: Better Never Than Late
- Companies are smoothing out volatile trade policies
- Activity remains strong and labour markets are tight
- Underlying price and wage inflation is still too high
- Markets expect cuts to resume later, contrary to history
- The risk of rate hikes in 2026 is widely underappreciated
By type
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Inflation
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Politics
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Monetary Policy
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Activity