Archive

February 03, 2025
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HEM: One More For The Road

  • BoE, ECB and Fed cuts are likely at their next meeting
  • We expect at least a policy pause beyond that
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
  • The ECB is not as exceptional as markets dovishly price

January 06, 2025
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HEM: Easing Evaporating

  • Cutting cycles are shrinking towards looking nearly over
  • The ECB is not as exceptional as it is dovishly priced
  • We see the Fed skipping Jan for a final March cut
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral

December 02, 2024
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HEM: Shrinking Euro Doves

  • Europe’s underperformance is over-priced
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • Activity trends signal monetary policy as nearly neutral
  • We see the BoE on hold while the ECB and Fed cut 25bp
  • Cuts remain likely to stop early in 2025 as 1998 replays

November 04, 2024
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HEM: De-risking For Election

  • Geopolitical risks urge caution after recent market moves
  • Unemployment trends suggest monetary policy isn’t tight
  • Labour cost rises remain above target-consistent levels
  • We see 25bp cuts at the next ECB, BoE and Fed meets
  • Cuts remain likely to stop early in 2025 as 1998 replays