Archive

January 20, 2025
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US vs EU

  • European leaders are underestimating Donald Trump’s animus towards the EU and his readiness to do Europe down as part of his zero-sum MAGA agenda. Spurred by the tech titans, he will target the EU’s regulatory strength and trade. Europe’s likely response remains uncertain.

By Alastair Newton

January 08, 2025
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Oil in 2025

  • The threat of trade wars makes forecasting the oil price this year unusually hazardous. However, based on the ‘known knowns’, one can safely assume that the downward pressure we saw through 2024 will persist. My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is, therefore, USD65 per barrel.

By Alastair Newton

December 09, 2024
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China/US: Trading Blows Part 2

  • Xi Jinping’s probable responses to trade tensions further heightening with the US will accelerate the ongoing shift from truly global globalisation to multi-polarisation. Investors need to adjust the way they view the world accordingly.

By Alastair Newton

December 04, 2024
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China/US: Trading Blows Part 1

  • Donald Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico over fentanyl proved to be no more of a wake-up call for investors than the nomination of Jamieson Greer as USTR. But Wall Street’s related faith in Scott Bessant’s ability to moderate trade policy may well prove misplaced.

By Alastair Newton

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