![CN.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/CN.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722076480&Signature=7bERIpZW0wrFaCgLmVirC2mimpRFOWDgG2DiSeV8GHD7LQu6QYWyAbd5OyfoYByNciC1Ry8TW3cjmNcDKo4pD05oXRNeCml~pCecO1PwMAykVOpIzo~~~2-aEWdv3CP8dQRJOXaeIe5PIdkQW3FokhZqlhX7ksaa9s3Ue-TzBwsmj0IhbnXSFRLrQ4APB5gk594vZLQN0NEhEYS-weAo8ClNpYvRbMj6mgcBE0JNE1VhalatTLDrqA5KRVdQk3vZoZGdSZmQ0lAAmZkz~mBttMP36bGgMxpLBQn2mwlKra9pOJ346fzGLvHcsjkjl1GeZHMpOvH8x7Fke8rBvd1R3Q__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
China CPI 0.3% y-o-y (consensus 0.4%) in May-24
- China's CPI remained stable at 0.3% year-on-year in May 2024, slightly above the one-year average but indicating modest inflationary pressures.
- Related economic indicators point to a mixed backdrop, with declining new house prices and robust monetary and credit growth hinting at potential future inflationary dynamics.
![CN.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/CN.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722076480&Signature=7bERIpZW0wrFaCgLmVirC2mimpRFOWDgG2DiSeV8GHD7LQu6QYWyAbd5OyfoYByNciC1Ry8TW3cjmNcDKo4pD05oXRNeCml~pCecO1PwMAykVOpIzo~~~2-aEWdv3CP8dQRJOXaeIe5PIdkQW3FokhZqlhX7ksaa9s3Ue-TzBwsmj0IhbnXSFRLrQ4APB5gk594vZLQN0NEhEYS-weAo8ClNpYvRbMj6mgcBE0JNE1VhalatTLDrqA5KRVdQk3vZoZGdSZmQ0lAAmZkz~mBttMP36bGgMxpLBQn2mwlKra9pOJ346fzGLvHcsjkjl1GeZHMpOvH8x7Fke8rBvd1R3Q__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
China CPI 0.3% y-o-y (consensus 0.2%) in Apr-24
- China's April 2024 CPI exceeded market expectations, growing by 0.3% year-on-year, suggesting sustained inflationary pressures.
- It is reassuring to see the CPI's current growth breaking above the one-year average, helping to end the excessively disinflationary trend.
![CN.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/CN.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722076480&Signature=7bERIpZW0wrFaCgLmVirC2mimpRFOWDgG2DiSeV8GHD7LQu6QYWyAbd5OyfoYByNciC1Ry8TW3cjmNcDKo4pD05oXRNeCml~pCecO1PwMAykVOpIzo~~~2-aEWdv3CP8dQRJOXaeIe5PIdkQW3FokhZqlhX7ksaa9s3Ue-TzBwsmj0IhbnXSFRLrQ4APB5gk594vZLQN0NEhEYS-weAo8ClNpYvRbMj6mgcBE0JNE1VhalatTLDrqA5KRVdQk3vZoZGdSZmQ0lAAmZkz~mBttMP36bGgMxpLBQn2mwlKra9pOJ346fzGLvHcsjkjl1GeZHMpOvH8x7Fke8rBvd1R3Q__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
China CPI 0.1% y-o-y (consensus 0.4%) in Mar-24
- China's CPI growth in March 2024 was 0.1% y-o-y, significantly below market consensus and marking the lowest growth since January 2024.
- Although the figure is 0.18pp above the one-year average, the slight improvement from falling prices emphasises the problem's persistence.
![2024-03-25 AN_head.png](https://static.heteronomics.com/images/2024-03-25_AN_head.2e16d0ba.fill-1080x607.png?Expires=1722076480&Signature=owH5qz0zlj1ha~3BUclTqYnRQaw3YKZ4Pkzedi6MEd6dDC1o8cWE2p84hmPikHfTkF76jHC1ApNpOwCyNL~rYfkttzkeA0xr-3Ucz1VQbLFbxey5DsBo-0c9DLAPnb7bEldlBlNKXWsEmzwqcshfdQbHiW~i~EMKrC57J0HHM97gKitiL4WzjjVQ3RjlJJaa-mmWhmpgBQCWLyZrqmyU5hpUDNH39wafVuHhVhXKNG5p96pTPirWfZNfyExdBniZ28Z1-~CttyXJw8j1ns0KK6a8z9lS3BE87vLapy7lDLo1KgnsLSGYVyl6gFjnC9UDSl6r4DtI~qF2QO3p~oDVVA__&Key-Pair-Id=K2NMLIS3J0RGKR)
Oil: A Fine Line
- The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.
By Alastair Newton
By type
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Inflation
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Politics
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Monetary Policy
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Activity