Archive

March 27, 2025
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US Tariffs: No Fooling!

  • The announcement of individual reciprocal tariff rates for US trading patterns on 2 April is rightly seen as a watershed moment for investors. Nevertheless, in a drive to re-industrialise America, it may well prove to be no more than the end of the beginning in a protracted trade war.

By Alastair Newton

March 13, 2025
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Heavy Metal Trade War

  • Volatility in US trade policy continues a cleaner tightening trend against China in the well-established tech war. Tariffs are a tool, but so are export restrictions.
  • China expanded restrictions on rare earth mineral exports to license critical materials like tungsten. The West lacks friendly suppliers and struggles to develop alternatives.
  • European defence investments may flounder. Japan and Korea may also suffer, so they can indirectly frustrate the US. Aggressive trade policy hits volumes as well as prices.

By Philip Rush

January 29, 2025
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AI: Attack Of The Clones

  • AI investors were shocked by China’s DeepSeek successfully matching the performance of OpenAI’s GP4-o1 at a fraction of the build cost and despite export restrictions.
  • Innovating a more productive use of capital does not negate the potential gains from increasing processing power. Either way benefits the economy with faster AI progress.
  • Foundation model IP needs better protection against the attack of cloning distillation techniques to reap a return on investment while pushing the performance frontier.

By Philip Rush

January 27, 2025
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Russia, Ukraine and Trump’s Legacy

  • Contrary to the prevailing view among the commentariat, Russia’s economy alone will not bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table over Ukraine, even if Donald Trump follows through on his threats. But we may still see a deal this year. This would be good news for European equities.

By Alastair Newton

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