Archive

December 09, 2024
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China/US: Trading Blows Part 2

  • Xi Jinping’s probable responses to trade tensions further heightening with the US will accelerate the ongoing shift from truly global globalisation to multi-polarisation. Investors need to adjust the way they view the world accordingly.

By Alastair Newton


December 04, 2024
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China/US: Trading Blows Part 1

  • Donald Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico over fentanyl proved to be no more of a wake-up call for investors than the nomination of Jamieson Greer as USTR. But Wall Street’s related faith in Scott Bessant’s ability to moderate trade policy may well prove misplaced.

By Alastair Newton


November 27, 2024
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Green Bubble Deflating

  • Donald Trump’s re-election breaks global momentum in green policies. The COP29 flop demonstrated the green bubble’s deflation amid a return of much-needed pragmatism.
  • The EU and UK face competitive pressure to soften their few plans to lower emissions. For example, mandating synthetic fuel would pivot clear from China’s EV advantage.
  • Preserving the non-green capital stock would reverse some stagflationary pressures. Adaptation remains the answer to climate change, even if many don’t want to hear it.

By Philip Rush


November 25, 2024
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The US And The ‘Axis of Upheaval’

  • How Donald Trump goes about trying to fulfil his commitment to end the Russia/Ukraine war stands to have a direct impact on rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait.

By Alastair Newton