Archive

Oil: A Fine Line

• The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton

On A Slow Boat To China

• As expected, this month’s National People’s Congress did little to alleviate China’s immediate economic malaise. Furthermore, it confirmed Xi Jinping’s determination to follow a course that owes more to his obsession with power than his longer-term economic vision.

By Alastair Newton

China CPI -0.8% y-o-y (consensus -0.5%) in Jan-24

- China's CPI declined by 0.8% year-on-year in January 2024, falling short of the consensus forecast by 0.3 percentage points.
- This decline in CPI is much lower than last month and below the one-year average, suggesting a deepening period of unusually weak inflation.

War In 2024

• Investors have learned to live with the Russia/Ukraine war, the Middle East crisis, and China/Taiwan tensions. However, they still need to beware less high-profile war risks around the world that are consistent with the turbulent times in which we live.

By Alastair Newton