Archive

December 04, 2024
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China/US: Trading Blows Part 1

  • Donald Trump’s threat of punitive tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico over fentanyl proved to be no more of a wake-up call for investors than the nomination of Jamieson Greer as USTR. But Wall Street’s related faith in Scott Bessant’s ability to moderate trade policy may well prove misplaced.

By Alastair Newton

November 27, 2024
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Green Bubble Deflating

  • Donald Trump’s re-election breaks global momentum in green policies. The COP29 flop demonstrated the green bubble’s deflation amid a return of much-needed pragmatism.
  • The EU and UK face competitive pressure to soften their few plans to lower emissions. For example, mandating synthetic fuel would pivot clear from China’s EV advantage.
  • Preserving the non-green capital stock would reverse some stagflationary pressures. Adaptation remains the answer to climate change, even if many don’t want to hear it.

By Philip Rush

November 25, 2024
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The US And The ‘Axis of Upheaval’

  • How Donald Trump goes about trying to fulfil his commitment to end the Russia/Ukraine war stands to have a direct impact on rising tensions on the Korean peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait.

By Alastair Newton

November 18, 2024
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US Politics: “Liquid Gold”

  • Donald Trump will do whatever he can to deliver on his promise to cut energy prices in half within 12 months. But factors outside of his control will prevent him from achieving anything more than a modest ‘win’, if that.

By Alastair Newton

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