
China CPI 0.3% y-o-y (consensus 0.4%) in May-24
- China's CPI remained stable at 0.3% year-on-year in May 2024, slightly above the one-year average but indicating modest inflationary pressures.
- Related economic indicators point to a mixed backdrop, with declining new house prices and robust monetary and credit growth hinting at potential future inflationary dynamics.

China CPI 0.3% y-o-y (consensus 0.2%) in Apr-24
- China's April 2024 CPI exceeded market expectations, growing by 0.3% year-on-year, suggesting sustained inflationary pressures.
- It is reassuring to see the CPI's current growth breaking above the one-year average, helping to end the excessively disinflationary trend.

China CPI 0.1% y-o-y (consensus 0.4%) in Mar-24
- China's CPI growth in March 2024 was 0.1% y-o-y, significantly below market consensus and marking the lowest growth since January 2024.
- Although the figure is 0.18pp above the one-year average, the slight improvement from falling prices emphasises the problem's persistence.

Oil: A Fine Line
- The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.
By Alastair Newton
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