Archive

On A Slow Boat To China

• As expected, this month’s National People’s Congress did little to alleviate China’s immediate economic malaise. Furthermore, it confirmed Xi Jinping’s determination to follow a course that owes more to his obsession with power than his longer-term economic vision.

By Alastair Newton

China CPI -0.8% y-o-y (consensus -0.5%) in Jan-24

- China's CPI declined by 0.8% year-on-year in January 2024, falling short of the consensus forecast by 0.3 percentage points.
- This decline in CPI is much lower than last month and below the one-year average, suggesting a deepening period of unusually weak inflation.

War In 2024

• Investors have learned to live with the Russia/Ukraine war, the Middle East crisis, and China/Taiwan tensions. However, they still need to beware less high-profile war risks around the world that are consistent with the turbulent times in which we live.

By Alastair Newton

China GDP Growth 5.2% y-o-y in Q4-23

- China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in Q4-23, marking the highest growth rate since Q2-23 and surpassing the long-run average by 1.09 percentage points.
- The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in Q4-23 was 1.0%, indicating a positive trend of economic recovery.