Archive

October 03, 2024
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Hedge Geopolitical Risk in the UAE

  • Rising tensions in the Middle East increase focus on geopolitical risks, which are hard to hedge. The UAE’s neutrality has made it a natural safe harbour, and this remains true.
  • Dubai property is an investible hedge, with price inflation correlated to the geopolitical risk level because it attracts sticky capital inflows whenever risks crystallise.
  • Natural leverage through off-plan payment schedules lowers the capital intensity of this diversifying asset while also presenting families with an attractive political "plan B".

By Philip Rush

September 24, 2024
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Oil: Rolling The Barrel Down The Road

  • Opec+ has little choice in the face of persistent weak demand for oil other than to further delay the unwinding of its voluntary cuts. Even then, without a sustained geopolitical shock, Brent looks set to settle below USD70 per barrel until at least the middle of 2025.

By Alastair Newton

August 27, 2024
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US Politics: Kamalanomics

  • As Kamala Harris strives to sustain party unity we are unlikely to learn much more about her economic policies, despite investor concerns over what she has unveiled. The closeness of the election, coupled with Trump-related concerns, therefore ensures more market volatility ahead.

By Alastair Newton

August 19, 2024
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Revisiting Peak Oil

  • Significant differences over short-term prospects for oil demand become even more stark when considering the timing of ‘peak oil’.

By Alastair Newton

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