November 18, 2024

US Politics: “Liquid Gold”
- Donald Trump will do whatever he can to deliver on his promise to cut energy prices in half within 12 months. But factors outside of his control will prevent him from achieving anything more than a modest ‘win’, if that.
By Alastair Newton
November 11, 2024

US Politics: Promises, Promises
- For all of Donald Trump’s unpredictability, one issue he has been consistent with for many years is the use of tariffs to redress the ‘unfair’ trade practices he believes to be the cause of US trade deficits. Bargaining chip or not, this Hobbesian view poses a massive threat to the global economy.
By Alastair Newton
October 03, 2024

Hedge Geopolitical Risk in the UAE
- Rising tensions in the Middle East increase focus on geopolitical risks, which are hard to hedge. The UAE’s neutrality has made it a natural safe harbour, and this remains true.
- Dubai property is an investible hedge, with price inflation correlated to the geopolitical risk level because it attracts sticky capital inflows whenever risks crystallise.
- Natural leverage through off-plan payment schedules lowers the capital intensity of this diversifying asset while also presenting families with an attractive political "plan B".
By Philip Rush
September 24, 2024

Oil: Rolling The Barrel Down The Road
- Opec+ has little choice in the face of persistent weak demand for oil other than to further delay the unwinding of its voluntary cuts. Even then, without a sustained geopolitical shock, Brent looks set to settle below USD70 per barrel until at least the middle of 2025.
By Alastair Newton
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