Archive

July 16, 2024
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Fixing QT Costs

  • The BoE’s gilt holdings and sales are creating fiscal costs that are unnecessarily large. Restoring the proper separation between the BoE, HMT, and DMO would help.
  • Swapping the BoE’s gilt portfolio for T-Bills with the Debt Management Account would break undesirable linkages and avoid crystalising mark-to-market losses to the deficit.
  • Borrowing would be about £10bn per year less, creating welcome fiscal space and the political victory of clearing up a costly Conservative mess of institutions Labour set up.

By Philip Rush


July 15, 2024
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Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

  • The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton


July 08, 2024
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France: Back To The Future?

  • Contrary to all the opinion polls, the ‘cordon sanitaire’ has held once again in France, keeping Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National out of any plausible government for now at least. But the cost of this is high in both the short- and medium-term.

By Alastair Newton


July 03, 2024
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UK Politics: The Morning After

  • The incoming Labour government will be focused on winning a second term from Day One. Thus, the “change” promised in the manifesto will be incremental and consistent with achieving only a modest improvement in economic growth. More radical steps must await the hoped-for second term.

By Alastair Newton