Archive

October 21, 2024
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US Elections: Four Scenarios

  • Excepting the Senate, the US elections remain finely balanced, offering four scenarios with a 20% or higher probability. The four suggest that a Trump administration would be better able to pursue his agenda than a Harris administration would hers.

By Alastair Newton

October 14, 2024
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UK Politics: A Fresh Start?

  • Although there is still more to be done to sort out the malaise at the heart of government, last week’s Downing Street shake-out and this month’s budget offer Labour a much-needed opportunity to present and promote a clearer indication of its intended course.

By Alastair Newton

October 07, 2024
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The Middle East: At An Inflection Point?

  • Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack last week is seemingly inevitable and may well mark a further escalation, especially if, as seems likely, Israel is aiming fundamentally to shift the balance of power in the region. Nevertheless, the perceived threat to oil may be overstated.

By Alastair Newton

October 03, 2024
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Hedge Geopolitical Risk in the UAE

  • Rising tensions in the Middle East increase focus on geopolitical risks, which are hard to hedge. The UAE’s neutrality has made it a natural safe harbour, and this remains true.
  • Dubai property is an investible hedge, with price inflation correlated to the geopolitical risk level because it attracts sticky capital inflows whenever risks crystallise.
  • Natural leverage through off-plan payment schedules lowers the capital intensity of this diversifying asset while also presenting families with an attractive political "plan B".

By Philip Rush

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