Archive

March 17, 2025
2025-03-17 AN_head.png

EU: Defence Spending

  • The EU faces two imminent deadlines in determining defence spending. On 20 March, the Commission presents its full loans-for-arms proposal to a divided European Council, and on 24 March, the ‘old’ Bundestag will step down, after which easing Germany’s debt brake becomes even harder.

By Alastair Newton

March 13, 2025
2025-03-13 Trade_head.png

Heavy Metal Trade War

  • Volatility in US trade policy continues a cleaner tightening trend against China in the well-established tech war. Tariffs are a tool, but so are export restrictions.
  • China expanded restrictions on rare earth mineral exports to license critical materials like tungsten. The West lacks friendly suppliers and struggles to develop alternatives.
  • European defence investments may flounder. Japan and Korea may also suffer, so they can indirectly frustrate the US. Aggressive trade policy hits volumes as well as prices.

By Philip Rush

March 11, 2025
2025-03-11 AN_head.png

Trump-ism And East Asia

  • Donald Trump’s abandonment of the US-led international order and efforts to reshape global trade and finance do not bode well for East Asian economies that may find themselves forced by Washington into a Chinese sphere of influence as part of a grand bargain with Beijing.

By Alastair Newton

March 10, 2025
2025-03-10 EA_head.png

Euro Sentiment Flies Like Icarus

  • Resilient data led to hawkish monetary policy guidance, consistent with our bullish Euro view. Fiscal announcements have super-charged that move, so we dropped our call.
  • European Commission statements are an upper bound on loosening while Germany’s plans are not yet legislated. Extra defence spending on imports will also damp the Euro.
  • Sentiment has flown too high. US trade policy seems set to hit Europe soon, potentially melting sentiment and sending the Euro plummeting back to Earth like Icarus.

By Philip Rush

By country