September 20, 2021
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Germany: Traffic signals ahead

  • Ahead of elections on 26 September, the SPD has moved ahead in the polls, and a three-party SPD-Green led coalition now looks to be the most likely outcome.
  • The SPD and Greens look like natural partners. The major stumbling block to any coalition will be the deal with a third party – i.e. a Traffic Light arrangement with the FDP, or a more controversial tie-up with the ex-communist Linke party.
  • A policy programme billed as an investment in decarbonisation and digital infrastructure could be a key source of unity for a Traffic Light government.

September 14, 2021
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Norway: no need to wear Green

  • Norway’s election results show a swing to the left, with Labour, Centre and Socialist Left having a combined majority of five in the new parliament. Crucially, these three parties can govern without the support of the Green Party.
  • We see limited implications of the result for investors, with the Norges Bank still set to raise the policy rate on 23 September.

September 07, 2021
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Covid: winter is coming again

  • Covid infections have been relatively subdued in Europe recently, but we still expect them to seasonally surge into the winter, despite vaccinations. The US demonstrates that it is possible and that hospitalisation rates are not breaking lower than last year.
  • Politicians are risk minimising for covid, with the UK government especially aggressive as it seeks to protect the struggling NHS. A return of some restrictions in the winter is likely to hit the UK harder than the US, while we still see the Euro area as in between.