Archive

September 17, 2025
US.png

Fed Cuts Amid Deep Policy Division

  • Fed cuts rates 25bp as expected, with new Trump appointee Miran dissenting for a 50bp reduction.
  • Labour market weakness drove the policy shift as job growth averages 29k monthly, below the levels likely needed to maintain stable unemployment.
  • Projections show a 9-9 split between one or two more cuts in 2025, and only one more in 2026. The FOMC is not as dovish as the market's pricing.
September 11, 2025
PE.png

Peru Nears Neutral as Rates Cut to 4.25%

  • BCRP cut rates by 25bp to 4.25%, approaching neutral policy as August inflation fell to 1.1% YoY, the lowest since 2018, below consensus expectations.
  • The real ex-ante rate is now 2.07%, very close to the 2% neutral estimate, suggesting limited scope for further easing without overstimulating the economy.
  • Global trade tensions create a medium-term downward bias for growth outlook, with a data-dependent approach maintained for future policy adjustments.
September 10, 2025
CL.png

Chile: Steady Rates Amid Global Uncertainty

  • Chile's policy rate was held at 4.75%, surprising no consensus forecasts amid stable activity and FX markets.
  • Core inflation is higher than June projections, signalling persistent price pressures on goods and services.
  • Future moves hinge on additional data. Persistent wage-driven inflation may delay any rate cuts.
September 04, 2025
MY.png

BNM Holds Rate Amid Trade Headwinds

  • BNM holds its OPR at 2.75% as expected. Its data-dependent stance signals patience amid trade uncertainties & resilient domestic conditions.
  • Benign inflation (1.4% headline, 1.9% core) provides policy flexibility, and a moderate outlook through 2026 supports an accommodative stance.
  • Strong 4.4% H1 growth, driven by robust 7% Q2 domestic demand, leads analysts to expect rates on hold through 2025, with cuts if growth weakens.

By country