Archive

August 28, 2025
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BOK Holds at 2.50%, Signals Future Cuts

  • The BOK maintains a 2.50% rate as expected, but signals continued easing bias through the first half of 2026, citing below-potential growth requiring support.
  • Housing price risks in Seoul override growth concerns despite a modest GDP upgrade to 0.9%, with household debt acceleration complicating policy timing.
  • An October rate cut is increasingly likely following the expected Fed move, as inflation is stable near 2% target, providing accommodation scope when financial stability permits.
August 20, 2025
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New Zealand Extends Dovish Rate Cycle

  • The RBNZ cut the OCR to 3% in August, matching consensus expectations amid stalled growth and stable medium-term inflation.
  • This decision was split, with a minority favouring a larger cut. Further reductions to 2.5% are likely unless inflation surprises persist.
  • Weak household demand and global uncertainty may extend the easing cycle, making future rate policy highly data-dependent.
August 20, 2025
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Indonesia’s Surprise Summer Rate Cut

  • Bank Indonesia’s surprise 25bps cut to 5.00% signals proactive easing amid subdued inflation and global uncertainty.
  • The Rupiah’s strength and solid capital inflows provide policy space to support domestic growth despite external risks.
  • Further cuts are likely this year, contingent on exchange rate stability, fiscal support, and global economic developments.
August 20, 2025
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Riksbank Holds at 2% Amid Fragile Outlook

  • The Riksbank held its rate at 2% while seeing above-target summer inflation as temporary.
  • Weak growth and a fragile labour market sustain rate-cut probability later in 2025.
  • The policy outlook hinges on fading inflation pressures, demand recovery, and global risks.

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