Archive

June 19, 2025
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Philippines: 25bp Rate Cut to 5.25% (Consensus 5.25%) in Jun-25

  • The Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) reduced its Target RRP Rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, a move that aligned with consensus forecasts and was prompted by a sharply lower inflation outlook for 2025.
  • The decision reflects growing concerns over a global economic slowdown, persistent US trade policy uncertainty, and a widening domestic output gap, all of which argue for a more accommodative monetary stance.
  • Future rate decisions will hinge on inflation dynamics, external policy shifts—especially from the US Federal Reserve—and the effectiveness of monetary easing in supporting domestic growth without compromising price stability
June 18, 2025
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Brazil: 25bp Rate Hike To 15% (Consensus 14.75%) in Jun-25

  • Brazil's Copom surprised markets by raising the Selic rate to 15.00%, citing persistent inflation and deanchored expectations, contrary to the consensus forecast for a pause.
  • The decision reflects ongoing concern over resilient domestic demand, robust labour markets, and external uncertainties, with inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 remaining above target.
  • Future policy will likely see rates held at restrictive levels for a prolonged period, with further hikes possible if inflation risks intensify or expectations fail to converge, while any easing is contingent on clear evidence of disinflation and fiscal discipline.
June 18, 2025
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Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in Jun-25

  • Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 5.50% in June 2025, in line with consensus expectations, citing stable inflation and a resilient rupiah as key factors.
  • The decision reflects a cautious approach amid persistent global uncertainties, with BI emphasising the need to preserve macroeconomic stability while supporting growth through accommodative macroprudential and payment system policies.
  • The interest rate outlook remains data-dependent, with the central bank signalling potential for further easing if inflation and currency stability persist, but maintaining a prudent stance given external risks and the need to attract foreign capital.
June 18, 2025
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Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with consensus expectations, citing weaker economic growth and a subdued inflation outlook.
  • The decision reflects persistent uncertainty in both domestic demand and the global environment, with the central bank signalling a non-trivial probability of further easing should inflation remain below target and recovery falter.
  • Future policy decisions will be highly data-dependent, with particular attention to inflation dynamics, labour market conditions, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and trade-related risks.

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