Archive

January 28, 2026
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Canada: Trade Risk and Rate Flexibility

  • The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25%, as expected, with this second straight hold signalling a cautious pause as policy is firmly data‑dependent.
  • With core inflation easing but still near 2.5% and unemployment elevated, rates are likely on hold through 2026 unless inflation or growth deviates materially.
  • Trade uncertainty and CUSMA talks are key wildcards; the next move (probably a hike) is seen in 2027 if growth and inflation remain near projections.
January 27, 2026
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Chile Holds Steady, Cuts Deferred

  • Chile's central bank held the policy rate at 4.5% as the consensus expected, signalling a pause in the easing cycle rather than a shift to tightening.
  • With inflation falling toward the 3% target and expectations anchored, the decision preserves scope for future cuts if activity data weaken further.
  • Forward guidance points to the March IPoM as the key juncture for potential renewed easing, keeping a gradual rate-cut path in play but highly data-dependent.
January 23, 2026
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Hawkish BOJ Outlook Signals Rate Hikes

  • BOJ held rates at 0.75% as expected, but a hawkish outlook and upgraded core inflation reinforce expectations of further hikes in 2026.
  • An 8–1 vote, with one member preferring a hike to 1%, and persistent wage-driven inflation, suggests structural pressures that argue for a higher terminal rate.
  • With labour tightness and rising inflation expectations, markets now price additional hikes, making the timing and pace of BOJ normalisation the key policy focus.
January 22, 2026
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Norway's Restrictive Pause Amid Inflation Dilemma

  • Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4% as expected, reiterating that cuts are likely later in 2026 but only if disinflation progresses as projected.
  • Guidance points to one or two cuts this year, but policymakers stress a restrictive stance until underlying inflation, stuck near 3%, moves closer to the 2% target.
  • A March cut looks unlikely; the path and timing of easing hinge on labour market softening, cost pressures, and krone moves ahead of new forecasts in March.

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