Archive

September 25, 2025
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SNB Pauses Easing Amid Tariff Shock

  • SNB holds at 0% as expected, pausing after six cuts. Inflation at 0.2% provides a stability buffer despite US tariff economic headwinds.
  • Growth outlook deteriorates with 2026 forecast cut to "under 1%" as machinery and watches are hit hardest by 39% US tariffs impacting exports.
  • A high bar to negative rates is maintained, despite CHF strength and unemployment rising. Service sector resilience limits immediate easing pressures.
September 23, 2025
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Riksbank Cuts to 1.75%, Signals Pause

  • Surprise rate cut to 1.75% reflects weak growth trumping temporary inflation concerns; policy likely on hold "for some time".
  • Fiscal stimulus of SEK 80bn for 2026 supports the outlook but creates inflation uncertainty via supply-demand imbalance.
  • The projected terminal rate is now reached, with the next move potentially a rate hike before the end of 2026.
September 19, 2025
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BOJ Policy Shift Despite Rate Hold

  • The BOJ held rates at 0.5% with a 7-2 vote. Hawkish dissent from Takata and Tamura voting for 0.75% signals rising tightening pressure within the board.
  • Surprise ETF/J-REIT disposal announcement (¥330bn/¥5bn annually) marks a significant normalisation step despite external trade headwinds.
  • Core inflation at 2.7% remains above target. Overall, October rate hike expectations rise to 55% after the hawkish tone despite the hold decision.
September 18, 2025
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Norway's Hawkish Cut Slows Rate Path

  • The Norges Bank cut rates 25bp to 4% as expected, but signalled slower easing than June projections, revising the rate path 20-40bp higher across 2026.
  • Committee projects one rate cut annually for three years to a terminal rate above 3% by 2028, reflecting stronger growth and persistent inflation pressures.
  • The decision balances economic support with anti-inflation credibility amid trade uncertainty and 4.5% wage growth expectations, constraining future cuts.

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