Archive

April 01, 2025
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Australia: Policy Rate Held At 4.1% (Consensus 4.1%) in Apr-25

  • The RBA held the cash rate at 4.10%, in line with expectations, citing ongoing but uncertain progress in reducing underlying inflation towards the 2–3% target range.
  • Labour market conditions remain tight despite a February employment decline, with low underutilisation and elevated unit labour costs continuing to present inflationary risks.
  • Global uncertainties, including new US tariffs and geopolitical tensions, could dampen global activity and further complicate the inflation outlook, reinforcing the RBA’s cautious and data-dependent stance.
March 31, 2025
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Colombia: Policy Rate Held At 9.5% (Consensus 9.25%) in Mar-25

  • Banco de la República held the policy rate steady at 9.5%, surprising consensus expectations for a 25bp cut, as most board members prioritised caution amid rising inflation and external uncertainty.
  • Headline inflation rose slightly to 5.3% in February, with persistent pressures in regulated and food prices, while inflation expectations remained above target across market-based and survey measures.
  • With the labour market exhibiting strength, and fiscal and global risks still elevated, the central bank has delayed further rate cuts until more conclusive data becomes available.
March 27, 2025
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Mar-25

  • The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February, well above prior forecasts, prompting delays in the signalled rate cuts.
  • Strong wage growth, broad-based price pressures, and resilient domestic activity led the Committee to judge that a restrictive policy stance remains warranted for longer.
  • The policy rate is now projected to fall to 4.0% by year-end, but heightened uncertainty around inflation and global trade developments will shape the timing and extent of future easing.
March 27, 2025
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Mexico: 50bp Rate Cut To 9% (Consensus 9%) in Mar-25

  • Banco de México cut the overnight interbank rate by 50 basis points to 9.00%, in line with expectations, citing sustained disinflation and inflation levels consistent with pre-pandemic norms.
  • Inflation is forecast to reach the 3% target by Q3 2026, with risks still skewed to the upside due to global trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and persistent core inflation.
  • The central bank indicated further 50bp cuts remain plausible, but policy will remain restrictive and data-dependent to ensure inflation converges to the target sustainably and orderly.

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