Archive

June 26, 2025
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Mexico: 50bp Rate Cut To 8% (Consensus 8%) in Jun-25

  • Banxico cut rates by 50 basis points to 8.00% as expected, but Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath's dissent signals growing concern about aggressive easing while inflation remains at 4.51%.
  • The central bank raised year-end inflation forecasts to 3.7% from 3.3% while maintaining that convergence to the 3% target will occur by Q3 2026.
  • Removal of language about future cuts of "similar magnitudes" suggests a shift towards more cautious easing amid trade policy uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures.
June 25, 2025
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Thailand: Policy Rate Held At 1.75% (Consensus 1.75%) in Jun-25

  • The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate at 1.75% by a 6-1 vote, in line with expectations, citing robust first-half growth but heightened risks from US trade policy and global uncertainties.
  • Despite raising its 2025 growth forecast to 2.3%, the MPC flagged a likely economic slowdown in the second half of the year, subdued inflation well below target, and negative credit growth as key factors influencing future rate decisions.
  • The Committee signalled a data-dependent approach, preserving limited policy space and indicating that further rate cuts would require a significant deterioration in growth or inflation outlook.
June 19, 2025
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Norway: 25bp Rate Cut To 4.25% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jun-25

  • The Norges Bank unexpectedly reduced its policy rate to 4.25%, defying consensus expectations for a hold, citing a faster-than-anticipated decline in underlying inflation and increased economic slack.
  • The Committee signalled that, if the economy develops as projected, further gradual rate cuts are likely in 2025, but emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation is sustainably on target.
  • Future rate decisions will be highly data-dependent, with the Committee closely monitoring domestic wage and price dynamics, labour market conditions, and external risks such as geopolitical tensions and global trade policy uncertainty.
June 19, 2025
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SNB: 25bp Rate Cut To 0.0% (Consensus 0.0%) in Jun-25

  • The SNB lowered its policy rate to 0% as expected, responding to declining inflation and subdued price pressures, with the latest forecasts indicating inflation will remain well within the price stability range through 2027.
  • The SNB’s guidance remains cautious, highlighting global trade tensions, external risks, and persistent uncertainties as key factors shaping the interest rate outlook.
  • Future policy decisions will be data-driven, with the SNB prepared to adjust rates further or intervene in currency markets if inflation deviates from target or if external shocks intensify.

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