Archive

October 09, 2025
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BSP Delivers Unexpected Policy Easing

  • BSP cut rates 25bp to 4.75% surprising market expectations for a pause, citing a weakened growth outlook from infrastructure governance concerns.
  • Benign inflation at 1.7%, well below the 2-4% target, provides scope for accommodation despite electricity and rice tariff upside risks.
  • Further easing is likely in December as BSP signals the policy "sweet spot" is lower than expected amid persistent growth headwinds.
October 08, 2025
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Thailand Defies Consensus with Policy Hold

  • BOT holds rate at 1.50% in a 5-2 vote, surprising 70% of economists who expected a 25bp cut, citing limited policy space and timing concerns amid economic uncertainty.
  • Economy faces 2H25-2026 slowdown from US tariff impacts, with exports declining and GDP growth revised to 2.2% (2025) and 1.6% (2026) despite a front-loaded boost.
  • Credit contraction continues affecting vulnerable SMEs while inflation at -0.72% remains below target, but the dovish new governor signals potential future easing.
October 08, 2025
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RBNZ Cuts OCR to Stimulative 2.5%

  • The RBNZ cut its OCR by 50bps to 2.5%, beyond the 25bp consensus, with unanimous committee support signalling a more aggressive stance than August's split vote.
  • Inflation is forecast at 3% in Q3 but returns to 2% midpoint by H1 2026 due to spare capacity, providing scope for further easing.
  • The Committee remains open to additional cuts with the November meeting live, as terminal rate expectations fall below the previous neutral 3% estimate.
October 01, 2025
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Colombia Holds Rates at 9.25% Amid Inflation Persistence

  • The central bank held rates at 9.25% in a 4-3 split vote, matching consensus expectations but extending the pause cycle to four months amid 5.1% inflation.
  • Slower inflation convergence toward 3% target drives caution as service prices remain sticky and analyst expectations rise to 5% for 2025.
  • Fiscal deficit widening to 7.1% of GDP and rule suspension through 2027 limits monetary policy flexibility and prolongs the restrictive stance.

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