Archive

October 08, 2025
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Thailand Defies Consensus with Policy Hold

  • BOT holds rate at 1.50% in a 5-2 vote, surprising 70% of economists who expected a 25bp cut, citing limited policy space and timing concerns amid economic uncertainty.
  • Economy faces 2H25-2026 slowdown from US tariff impacts, with exports declining and GDP growth revised to 2.2% (2025) and 1.6% (2026) despite a front-loaded boost.
  • Credit contraction continues affecting vulnerable SMEs while inflation at -0.72% remains below target, but the dovish new governor signals potential future easing.
October 01, 2025
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Colombia Holds Rates at 9.25% Amid Inflation Persistence

  • The central bank held rates at 9.25% in a 4-3 split vote, matching consensus expectations but extending the pause cycle to four months amid 5.1% inflation.
  • Slower inflation convergence toward 3% target drives caution as service prices remain sticky and analyst expectations rise to 5% for 2025.
  • Fiscal deficit widening to 7.1% of GDP and rule suspension through 2027 limits monetary policy flexibility and prolongs the restrictive stance.
October 01, 2025
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RBI Holds Rates Amid Trade Headwinds

  • The RBI held its repo rate at 5.5%, unanimously keeping a neutral stance as the committee assesses the impact of prior cuts amid an improved inflation outlook.
  • Inflation projections were slashed to 2.6% from 3.1%, driven by GST reforms and benign food prices, creating policy space despite growth risks from 50% US tariffs.
  • Domestic demand raised the growth forecast to 6.8%, but H2 FY26 faces headwinds from trade tensions. The MPC adopts a wait-and-see approach before its next move.
September 30, 2025
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RBA Holds at 3.6%: Inflation Concerns Temper Easing

  • The RBA holds at 3.6% as expected, but warns that Q3 inflation may exceed forecasts, with the underlying decline slowing.
  • Stronger Q2 GDP growth (1.8% annually) and a resilient labour market (4.2% unemployment) complicate the easing outlook amid a recovery.
  • A November rate cut remains possible but less likely, with banks split between November 2025 and May 2026 for the next move.

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