Archive

September 04, 2025
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BNM Holds Rate Amid Trade Headwinds

  • BNM holds its OPR at 2.75% as expected. Its data-dependent stance signals patience amid trade uncertainties & resilient domestic conditions.
  • Benign inflation (1.4% headline, 1.9% core) provides policy flexibility, and a moderate outlook through 2026 supports an accommodative stance.
  • Strong 4.4% H1 growth, driven by robust 7% Q2 domestic demand, leads analysts to expect rates on hold through 2025, with cuts if growth weakens.
August 28, 2025
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BOK Holds at 2.50%, Signals Future Cuts

  • The BOK maintains a 2.50% rate as expected, but signals continued easing bias through the first half of 2026, citing below-potential growth requiring support.
  • Housing price risks in Seoul override growth concerns despite a modest GDP upgrade to 0.9%, with household debt acceleration complicating policy timing.
  • An October rate cut is increasingly likely following the expected Fed move, as inflation is stable near 2% target, providing accommodation scope when financial stability permits.

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