Archive

September 30, 2025
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RBA Holds at 3.6%: Inflation Concerns Temper Easing

  • The RBA holds at 3.6% as expected, but warns that Q3 inflation may exceed forecasts, with the underlying decline slowing.
  • Stronger Q2 GDP growth (1.8% annually) and a resilient labour market (4.2% unemployment) complicate the easing outlook amid a recovery.
  • A November rate cut remains possible but less likely, with banks split between November 2025 and May 2026 for the next move.
September 25, 2025
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SNB Pauses Easing Amid Tariff Shock

  • SNB holds at 0% as expected, pausing after six cuts. Inflation at 0.2% provides a stability buffer despite US tariff economic headwinds.
  • Growth outlook deteriorates with 2026 forecast cut to "under 1%" as machinery and watches are hit hardest by 39% US tariffs impacting exports.
  • A high bar to negative rates is maintained, despite CHF strength and unemployment rising. Service sector resilience limits immediate easing pressures.

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