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June 26, 2025
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Mexico: 50bp Rate Cut To 8% (Consensus 8%) in Jun-25

  • Banxico cut rates by 50 basis points to 8.00% as expected, but Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath's dissent signals growing concern about aggressive easing while inflation remains at 4.51%.
  • The central bank raised year-end inflation forecasts to 3.7% from 3.3% while maintaining that convergence to the 3% target will occur by Q3 2026.
  • Removal of language about future cuts of "similar magnitudes" suggests a shift towards more cautious easing amid trade policy uncertainty and persistent inflation pressures.
June 25, 2025
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Thailand: Policy Rate Held At 1.75% (Consensus 1.75%) in Jun-25

  • The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate at 1.75% by a 6-1 vote, in line with expectations, citing robust first-half growth but heightened risks from US trade policy and global uncertainties.
  • Despite raising its 2025 growth forecast to 2.3%, the MPC flagged a likely economic slowdown in the second half of the year, subdued inflation well below target, and negative credit growth as key factors influencing future rate decisions.
  • The Committee signalled a data-dependent approach, preserving limited policy space and indicating that further rate cuts would require a significant deterioration in growth or inflation outlook.

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