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October 14, 2025
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MAS Holds Course on Tightening

  • MAS holds policy steady as Q3 GDP beats 2% consensus with 2.9% growth, core inflation at 0.5% for 2025.
  • The central bank is less dovish on 2026 easing as the output gap stays positive through 2025, near zero in 2026.
  • Tariff risks are contained as pharma exemptions are negotiated, and AI investments support manufacturing resilience.
October 09, 2025
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Peru Holds Rates Near Neutral at 4.25%

  • Peru held rates at 4.25% as expected, near its neutral level, with inflation at 1.4% approaching the target midpoint by year-end.
  • Policy pause reflects balanced risks: benign domestic inflation vs global trade restrictions weighing on medium-term growth outlook.
  • Future moves depend on inflation drivers, but immediate easing is unlikely given the proximity to the 2% neutral real rate estimate.

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