Archive

December 19, 2024
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Dec-24

  • The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with the consensus, and signalled potential easing from March 2025, contingent on continued economic moderation.
  • Inflation has slowed significantly but remains above target, constrained by high wage growth and business costs; domestic activity has exceeded expectations, while unemployment remains stable.
  • The outlook is marked by uncertainty, with risks from global trade policy and domestic inflationary pressures influencing the trajectory of future rate adjustments.
December 19, 2024
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Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Dec-24

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%, meeting consensus expectations and reflecting a total reduction of 1.5 percentage points since May 2024 to support weak economic activity and stabilise inflation near the target.
  • Forward guidance indicates the potential for another rate cut in H1 2025, contingent on stable inflation and growth projections, emphasising evaluating the lagged effects of earlier policy adjustments.
  • External uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy ambiguities, alongside domestic risks, such as the krona's exchange rate and fragile recovery momentum, will influence future monetary policy decisions.

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