Archive

May 07, 2025
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Brazil: 50bp Rate Hike To 14.75% (Consensus 14.75%) in May-25

  • Brazil's Copom raised the Selic rate by 50bp to 14.75%, as expected, slowing the pace of tightening while maintaining a restrictive stance amid persistent inflation pressures.
  • Despite early signs of growth moderation, inflation expectations remain deanchored, and inflation readings are elevated, justifying continued policy restraint over a prolonged period.
  • Future decisions will reflect heightened uncertainty and the advanced tightening stage, with Copom signalling greater flexibility and data-dependence in calibrating the path to price stability.

May 07, 2025
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US: Policy Rate Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in May-25

  • As expected, the Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, citing increased uncertainty and elevated risks to inflation and employment.
  • Core PCE inflation remains above target at 2.6%, with recent tariff increases raising near-term inflation expectations and clouding the outlook.
  • The Fed remains in wait-and-see mode, with future policy shifts contingent on how evolving trade and fiscal policies affect inflation persistence and labour market stability.

May 01, 2025
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Japan: Policy Rate Held At 0.5% (Consensus 0.5%) in May-25

  • The BoJ held the policy rate steady at 0.5%, in line with expectations, while market sentiment shifted more dovishly, reducing the perceived likelihood of further rate hikes.
  • Growth and inflation forecasts for 2025–26 have been revised down, with underlying inflation expected to remain weak and only gradually return to target levels as wage pressures intensify.
  • Despite maintaining a tightening bias, the BoJ’s emphasis on downside risks and its data-dependent approach suggests a slow and cautious path toward further policy normalisation.

April 30, 2025
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Colombia: 25bp Rate Cut To 9.25% (Consensus 9.5%) in Apr-25

  • Banco de la República unanimously cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 9.25%, surprising consensus expectations for no change and breaking a recent streak of unexpected holds.
  • Inflation resumed its downward path, with core and headline figures easing and market-based expectations declining, supporting a measured policy loosening stance.
  • While domestic demand remains resilient and growth forecasts have been upgraded, external financing conditions and fiscal uncertainty continue to pose constraints on the pace of further easing.