Archive

October 01, 2025
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Colombia Holds Rates at 9.25% Amid Inflation Persistence

  • The central bank held rates at 9.25% in a 4-3 split vote, matching consensus expectations but extending the pause cycle to four months amid 5.1% inflation.
  • Slower inflation convergence toward 3% target drives caution as service prices remain sticky and analyst expectations rise to 5% for 2025.
  • Fiscal deficit widening to 7.1% of GDP and rule suspension through 2027 limits monetary policy flexibility and prolongs the restrictive stance.
September 30, 2025
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RBA Holds at 3.6%: Inflation Concerns Temper Easing

  • The RBA holds at 3.6% as expected, but warns that Q3 inflation may exceed forecasts, with the underlying decline slowing.
  • Stronger Q2 GDP growth (1.8% annually) and a resilient labour market (4.2% unemployment) complicate the easing outlook amid a recovery.
  • A November rate cut remains possible but less likely, with banks split between November 2025 and May 2026 for the next move.
September 25, 2025
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SNB Pauses Easing Amid Tariff Shock

  • SNB holds at 0% as expected, pausing after six cuts. Inflation at 0.2% provides a stability buffer despite US tariff economic headwinds.
  • Growth outlook deteriorates with 2026 forecast cut to "under 1%" as machinery and watches are hit hardest by 39% US tariffs impacting exports.
  • A high bar to negative rates is maintained, despite CHF strength and unemployment rising. Service sector resilience limits immediate easing pressures.
September 23, 2025
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Riksbank Cuts to 1.75%, Signals Pause

  • Surprise rate cut to 1.75% reflects weak growth trumping temporary inflation concerns; policy likely on hold "for some time".
  • Fiscal stimulus of SEK 80bn for 2026 supports the outlook but creates inflation uncertainty via supply-demand imbalance.
  • The projected terminal rate is now reached, with the next move potentially a rate hike before the end of 2026.

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