Archive

January 16, 2026
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HEW: Steady Start To 2026

  • UK GDP data set Q4 up to match Q3, while monthly US inflation held in December precisely where it was before the shutdown noisily disrupted the dataflow.
  • The case for easing remains thin, and there isn’t much scope to change that before the next decisions. The BOK delivered the year’s first policy news by cutting its easing bias.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data will be dampened by prices being sampled too early for Christmas surge pricing. It's broadly a busy week for UK and Euro area data.

By Philip Rush

January 09, 2026
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HEW: Turning 2026 Resiliently

  • A festive feast in resilient GDP data has extended into tracking estimates for Q4 in the US and UK, while the US unemployment rate has fallen from revision-tempered highs.
  • Falling PMIs were less encouraging, but don’t break resilient signals nor persistently excessive inflation signals. Plans to recover profit margins add to the BoE’s challenge.
  • Next week’s US inflation data provides the first clean monthly rate after November’s nonsensical gap-filling. UK GDP data for November is the other highlight for us.

By Philip Rush

December 19, 2025
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HEW: Dovish Data Dumps

  • Inflation data broadly disappointed expectations over the past week. The labour market news was more mixed, but higher UK and US unemployment rates raise eyebrows.
  • Policymakers behaved themselves, with no surprises and wide dispersion, including a BOJ hike, while the BoE delivered the finely balanced hawkish cut we expected.
  • The release calendar adopts a holiday stance for the next few weeks, with only UK and US Q3 GDP data out before Christmas. This publication will be back on 9 January.

By Philip Rush

December 12, 2025
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HEW: Packing Festive Presents

  • Another hawkish repricing occurred, despite little support from the Fed, although the six members favouring higher rates reveal hawkish discomfort beyond current voters.
  • Trade with China is still avoiding the trade war well enough to prevent a massive shock, and UK GDP data kept following its residual seasonality rather than fundamental stories.
  • It’s all happening next week as central banks and statistical authorities ram releases in before Christmas. Bailey’s bias to pivot should deliver a BoE cut while the ECB holds.

By Philip Rush

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