Archive

October 17, 2025
2025-10-17 HEW_head.png

HEW: Cockroaches Startle Pricing

  • Losses on bad and fraudulent US loans raise the risk that more cockroaches will emerge, nourished by monetary policy stimulating asset prices outside of recessionary regimes.
  • Market rates fell on this, while macro data didn’t offer direction as UK Q3 GDP kept tracking 0.2%, EA inflation was confirmed, and UK labour market data were mixed.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data should reveal a rise, with the CPI reaching 4%. Delayed US CPI data will provide a rare signal more relevant to the Fed’s likely decision to cut.

By Philip Rush

October 10, 2025
2025-10-10 HEW_head.png

HEW: Rate Surprises In The US Void

  • Most central bank decisions surprised consensus expectations this week, despite the void over the US situation. Neutral rate views often contributed to the directional news.
  • The Fed is encouraged to ease by the lack of evidence not to, stimulating market values further. The UK government is suffering from another likely downgrade to productivity.
  • Next week’s calendar is thinned by the possible delay of the US CPI data, leaving the EA as the inflationary highlight. The UK gets a potentially hawkish labour market report.

By Philip Rush

October 03, 2025
2025-10-03 HEW_head.png

HEW: Watching What Didn’t Happen

  • The US government shutdown removes the potential for official statistics to damp dovish concern, raising the likelihood of October’s cut, especially with other weak data.
  • EA unemployment’s rise reflected rounding rather than substance. UK national accounts revealed healthy balance sheets, aside from the government, and bullish lending stats.
  • Next week’s calendar stays thin with US releases suspended and Europe’s cycle focusing on the following week. The RBNZ, BoT, BSP and Peru announce rates next week.

By Philip Rush

September 26, 2025
2025-09-26 HEW_head.png

HEW: Resilience Reminders Roil Doves

  • Bullish GDP revisions and jobless claims provided further reminders that the economy is much more resilient than market pricing has dovishly assumed, causing a hawkish shift.
  • Nonetheless, the Riksbank surprised with a 25bp rate cut, but projected that as the terminal rate before hikes start reversing the stimulative setting in 2026.
  • Next week’s US payrolls data dominates the calendar, given the potential to break market conviction in an October Fed cut. EA inflation should rise back above the target.

By Philip Rush

By country