Archive

February 20, 2026
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HEW: Case For Cuts Narrows

  • A UK retail sales boom, robust PMI surveys, and persistent price and wage inflation offer plenty of reasons not to cut. But unemployment rose further, offering dovish cover.
  • Biased assumptions make further BoE policy mistakes likely, as 2% is treated more like a floor than a target. FOMC members are more cautious, and even Miran’s view is moving.
  • Next week's EA HICP print carries extra significance for us after Eurostat deprecated its old data. Our replacement component models for all member states will roll out then.

By Philip Rush

February 13, 2026
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HEW: Assuming Success

  • Assumptions consistent with our hopes are alluring, but not always realistic. They can lead policymakers to learn the wrong lessons for politics and monetary conditions.
  • Recent election victories don’t mean a new soft-left UK leader will achieve the same. Current resilience need not break to target-consistent levels, nor create room for cuts.
  • Next week is packed with some of the most important UK releases coming before the BoE’s March decision, including unemployment and inflation’s likely January drop to 3%.

By Philip Rush

February 06, 2026
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HEW: BoE Goes Its Own Way

  • The BoE refused to behave like its peers this week, with a significant dovish shift in the vote despite a lack of news, even as others settle on holding steady or even hiking.
  • Those doves overshadowed the ECB’s calm stability after inflation matched forecasts by dipping to 1.7% in January. Disappointing US labour market news drove rates down.
  • Next week’s slightly delayed payrolls (and CPI) releases will help reveal the relevance of this week’s noisy signals. We also await UK GDP data turning in residual seasonality.

By Philip Rush

January 30, 2026
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HEW: Markets Making Opinions

  • The falling USD and surging precious metals prices don’t fit the fundamental narratives of lazy strategists seeking to extrapolate moves into spurious trends.
  • Macro developments have been relatively benign, with resilient real activity shown in euro area GDP and surveys. Looser conditions pose upside risks to UK shelter prices.
  • Next week’s ECB and BoE decisions are set for no change rate outcomes, and we expect that will also broadly apply to guidance. We still expect no more cuts from either bank.

By Philip Rush

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