Archive

November 28, 2025
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HEW: Slow Shovels

  • UK fiscal policy had an even smaller hole to fill than we expected, with the work to fill it in delayed until the election. There is no dovish pressure on the BoE from this.
  • European data releases were relatively resilient again, with household lending and business sentiment broadly increasing. National inflation surprises were offsetting.
  • Next week’s Euro area flash HICP is still tracking 2.1% in our forecast. Final PMI releases and the BoE’s decision maker panel survey results are our other release highlights.

By Philip Rush

November 21, 2025
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HEW: Micro Risk Off

  • Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
  • US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
  • Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.

By Philip Rush

November 14, 2025
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HEW: Back To Business

  • The US government reopened after some of those seeking to expand the state inevitably broke ranks to reverse some shrinkage, although the fight could resume in January.
  • UK activity data were broadly disappointing as unemployment rose and GDP fell at the end of Q3, after downwards revisions helped realign with the residual seasonality.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data will be more insightful for the BoE’s hawks and us. The belated release of US macro data will probably be more substantive market news.

By Philip Rush

November 07, 2025
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HEW: Caution Echoes Outside the BoE

  • The BoE resisted cavalier calls for a rate cut this week, but it is much less cautious than we expected. A December rate cut is now likely, absent significant upside surprises.
  • All other central bank announcements this week fit the trend, with cautious holds in Australia, Sweden, Norway, Malaysia and Brazil, and a more careful cut in Mexico.
  • Next week’s UK labour market (and GDP) data are one of the few things that could clear the evidential hurdle to block a cut, although we doubt good news will extend that far.

By Philip Rush

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