Archive

November 21, 2025
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HEW: Micro Risk Off

  • Risk assets have suffered, despite decent Nvidia results suggesting AI demand hasn’t turned yet, and the macro data remaining resilient. Fears are more theme-specific.
  • US labour market activity entered the shutdown solidly, and low jobless claims suggest it survived fine. Meanwhile, UK inflation only lost a little excess, and our forecast rose.
  • Next week’s UK Budget is the lowlight of our week, but it may struggle to live up to all the noisy hype. Sneaky backloaded tax hikes will close the latest forecast hole again.

By Philip Rush

November 14, 2025
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HEW: Back To Business

  • The US government reopened after some of those seeking to expand the state inevitably broke ranks to reverse some shrinkage, although the fight could resume in January.
  • UK activity data were broadly disappointing as unemployment rose and GDP fell at the end of Q3, after downwards revisions helped realign with the residual seasonality.
  • Next week’s UK inflation data will be more insightful for the BoE’s hawks and us. The belated release of US macro data will probably be more substantive market news.

By Philip Rush

November 07, 2025
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HEW: Caution Echoes Outside the BoE

  • The BoE resisted cavalier calls for a rate cut this week, but it is much less cautious than we expected. A December rate cut is now likely, absent significant upside surprises.
  • All other central bank announcements this week fit the trend, with cautious holds in Australia, Sweden, Norway, Malaysia and Brazil, and a more careful cut in Mexico.
  • Next week’s UK labour market (and GDP) data are one of the few things that could clear the evidential hurdle to block a cut, although we doubt good news will extend that far.

By Philip Rush

October 31, 2025
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HEW: Cautious Committees

  • Central bankers broadly delivered on expectations this week, while cautioning that changes will likely be less than markets assume. The BOJ and ECB were also cautious.
  • Flash EA inflation slowed, as expected, but services and core stoked hawkish pressure, while money and credit data in the EA and UK show accommodation of inflation.
  • Next week’s BoE decision is no longer priced as a forgone conclusion, but the case to cut is weak. Like its peers, the BoE should cautiously damp dovish expectations.

By Philip Rush

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