Archive

May 02, 2025
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HEW: Good News From Less News

  • Dovish fears are failing to find support in the economic data or Trump’s declarations. Underlying activity appears to have remained resilient through the initial US tariff shock and the UK stamp duty rise. EA inflation pressure is also awkwardly unbroken.
  • The Fed will hold rates steady next week, without hard evidence to justify cutting. The BoE is also set to maintain its course with another quarterly 25bp rate cut amid sterling strength compounding commodity price falls. Future cuts by both need more evidence.

By Philip Rush

April 25, 2025
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HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar

  • US policy kept driving volatility over Easter. Sensible responses to market weakness may be matched on the upside with MAGA shocks, creating a Trump Collar to pricing. Yet the global economy is unfazed by the attacks and uncertainty, contrary to the consensus.
  • Next week’s release calendar is heavier with data, including some that provide needed colour on current conditions. US payrolls, the ISMs, and Euro inflation for April are highlights, with Q1 EA and US GDP probably discounted by the market as old news.

By Philip Rush

April 11, 2025
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HEW: Sipping ECB Dove-Juice

  • Volatility in reciprocal and China tariffs disrupted markets again over the past week. Waiting to see the impact in data dampens the relevance of releases, including low US inflation (depressed by a late Easter), and surging UK GDP (residual seasonality).
  • UK unemployment and inflation data risks skew hawkishly next week amid resilient underlying trends and the belated impact of Spring stock landing in clothing store price samples. Market moves also push the ECB towards cutting again on Thursday.

By Philip Rush

April 04, 2025
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HEW: Yikes, At Tonto Tariff Hikes

  • Surprisingly severe global tariff hikes smashed market sentiment, dovishly depressing equity prices and rate expectations. Lower EA inflation also leans toward looser policy. Market eagerness to discount ongoing US labour market resilience seems excessive.
  • Those new tariff rates are scheduled to take effect over the week ahead, with any more trading of blows potentially the main macro news. US inflation, UK GDP and the RBNZ are the more conventional highlights, but the data may be discounted as old news.

By Philip Rush

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