Archive

October 06, 2023
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HEW: Q4 Starts Quietly

  • It’s been a quiet start to the month, albeit ending in a blockbuster payroll release. We reiterated that corrupted seasonals appear to have overstated summer weakness, especially in Europe. The RBA and RBNZ held rates while Peru cut again as expected.
  • Next week could be even quieter, with no monetary policy decisions scheduled and data highlights for us limited to UK GDP. However, inflation data in the US and China are always crucial for market participants.

By Philip Rush

September 29, 2023
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HEW: Seasonal Doves

  • It’s been a relatively quiet week for economic news, although the downside surprise in EA inflation was significant, even if it was close to our call. We also highlighted how residual seasonality has been artificially depressing data, especially the EA services PMI.
  • Positive payback should come soon, but not next week when the final PMIs for September are more of the same. Monetary Policy Decisions head down under, with the RBA and RBNZ announcing decisions likely for no change, while Peru may cut again.

By Philip Rush

September 22, 2023
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HEW: Doves in the Herd

  • Central bank announcements dominated the agenda over the past week, with surprises skewing dovishly. Low inflation split the BoE into staying on hold while the SNB also resisted a hike. High for long was the motto throughout for almost all of them.
  • Next week is much quieter, with rate decisions from Thailand, Mexico, and Colombia. US PCE and EA HICP inflation are the data highlights, where we are a tenth below the current consensus on the latter in forecasting a fall to 4.4%.

By Philip Rush

September 15, 2023
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HEW: Herding into Policy Meetings

  • The past week featured downside news in UK GDP and employment, but still-strong wage inflation sustains hawkish concerns at the BoE. The ECB added some peer pressure through its rate hike and likely protracted period before rates are cut back.
  • Herding central bankers compete to be heard next week, as six of the G10 announce decisions (Fed, BoE, Riksbank, Norges Bank, SNB, BoJ), plus three others. UK inflation, the final HICP print, and flash PMIs are also highlights on the data front.

By Philip Rush

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